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U.S. Representative for South C's 4th District
U.S. Representative for South C's 4th District · November 3, 2026Safe R

MacAllister is clearly favored to win another term

Yusuf ChowdhuryDemocratic · Challenger
2%chance of winning
Martin MacAllisterRepublican · Incumbent
98%chance of winning
Chowdhury 39.9%Projected vote · R+18.3 ± 9.0MacAllister 58.1%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+41.5 — MacAllister winsSimulation 2: R+37.8 — MacAllister winsSimulation 3: R+35.9 — MacAllister winsSimulation 4: R+34.6 — MacAllister winsSimulation 5: R+33.6 — MacAllister winsSimulation 6: R+32.7 — MacAllister winsSimulation 7: R+31.9 — MacAllister winsSimulation 8: R+31.3 — MacAllister winsSimulation 9: R+30.6 — MacAllister winsSimulation 10: R+30.1 — MacAllister winsSimulation 11: R+29.6 — MacAllister winsSimulation 12: R+29.1 — MacAllister winsSimulation 13: R+28.7 — MacAllister winsSimulation 14: R+28.2 — MacAllister winsSimulation 15: R+27.8 — MacAllister winsSimulation 16: R+27.4 — MacAllister winsSimulation 17: R+27.1 — MacAllister winsSimulation 18: R+26.7 — MacAllister winsSimulation 19: R+26.4 — MacAllister winsSimulation 20: R+26 — MacAllister winsSimulation 21: R+25.7 — MacAllister winsSimulation 22: R+25.4 — MacAllister winsSimulation 23: R+25.1 — MacAllister winsSimulation 24: R+24.8 — MacAllister winsSimulation 25: R+24.5 — MacAllister winsSimulation 26: R+24.2 — MacAllister winsSimulation 27: R+24 — MacAllister winsSimulation 28: R+23.7 — MacAllister winsSimulation 29: R+23.4 — MacAllister winsSimulation 30: R+23.1 — MacAllister winsSimulation 31: R+22.9 — MacAllister winsSimulation 32: R+22.6 — MacAllister winsSimulation 33: R+22.4 — MacAllister winsSimulation 34: R+22.1 — MacAllister winsSimulation 35: R+21.9 — MacAllister winsSimulation 36: R+21.6 — MacAllister winsSimulation 37: R+21.4 — MacAllister winsSimulation 38: R+21.2 — MacAllister winsSimulation 39: R+20.9 — MacAllister winsSimulation 40: R+20.7 — MacAllister winsSimulation 41: R+20.5 — MacAllister winsSimulation 42: R+20.2 — MacAllister winsSimulation 43: R+20 — MacAllister winsSimulation 44: R+19.8 — MacAllister winsSimulation 45: R+19.5 — MacAllister winsSimulation 46: R+19.3 — MacAllister winsSimulation 47: R+19.1 — MacAllister winsSimulation 48: R+18.9 — MacAllister winsSimulation 49: R+18.6 — MacAllister winsSimulation 50: R+18.4 — MacAllister winsSimulation 51: R+18.2 — MacAllister winsSimulation 52: R+18 — MacAllister winsSimulation 53: R+17.7 — MacAllister winsSimulation 54: R+17.5 — MacAllister winsSimulation 55: R+17.3 — MacAllister winsSimulation 56: R+17.1 — MacAllister winsSimulation 57: R+16.8 — MacAllister winsSimulation 58: R+16.6 — MacAllister winsSimulation 59: R+16.4 — MacAllister winsSimulation 60: R+16.1 — MacAllister winsSimulation 61: R+15.9 — MacAllister winsSimulation 62: R+15.7 — MacAllister winsSimulation 63: R+15.4 — MacAllister winsSimulation 64: R+15.2 — MacAllister winsSimulation 65: R+15 — MacAllister winsSimulation 66: R+14.7 — MacAllister winsSimulation 67: R+14.5 — MacAllister winsSimulation 68: R+14.2 — MacAllister winsSimulation 69: R+14 — MacAllister winsSimulation 70: R+13.7 — MacAllister winsSimulation 71: R+13.5 — MacAllister winsSimulation 72: R+13.2 — MacAllister winsSimulation 73: R+12.9 — MacAllister winsSimulation 74: R+12.6 — MacAllister winsSimulation 75: R+12.4 — MacAllister winsSimulation 76: R+12.1 — MacAllister winsSimulation 77: R+11.8 — MacAllister winsSimulation 78: R+11.5 — MacAllister winsSimulation 79: R+11.2 — MacAllister winsSimulation 80: R+10.9 — MacAllister winsSimulation 81: R+10.6 — MacAllister winsSimulation 82: R+10.2 — MacAllister winsSimulation 83: R+9.9 — MacAllister winsSimulation 84: R+9.5 — MacAllister winsSimulation 85: R+9.2 — MacAllister winsSimulation 86: R+8.8 — MacAllister winsSimulation 87: R+8.4 — MacAllister winsSimulation 88: R+7.9 — MacAllister winsSimulation 89: R+7.5 — MacAllister winsSimulation 90: R+7 — MacAllister winsSimulation 91: R+6.5 — MacAllister winsSimulation 92: R+6 — MacAllister winsSimulation 93: R+5.3 — MacAllister winsSimulation 94: R+4.7 — MacAllister winsSimulation 95: R+3.9 — MacAllister winsSimulation 96: R+3 — MacAllister winsSimulation 97: R+2 — MacAllister winsSimulation 98: R+0.7 — MacAllister winsSimulation 99: D+1.2 — Chowdhury winsSimulation 100: D+4.9 — Chowdhury winsR+50R+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10
Chowdhury wins 2 of 100MacAllister wins 98

The forecast over time

One point a day
ChowdhuryMacAllister
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Chowdhury 2%MacAllister 98%
Show the forecast as a table
DateChowdhuryMacAllisterMargin
Sep 17%93%R+17.7
Sep 226%94%R+17.6
Oct 134%96%R+18.3
Oct 302%98%R+18.3

The ratings

CNN
Safe RR+16.2

Safe R in South C's 4th; MacAllister is favored by our team.

FOX News
Safe RR+20.6

Safe R. South C's 4th voters care about prices, not pundits.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
South C 4thR+16100%R+18.3

The candidates

Yusuf ChowdhuryDemocratic · Candidate for South C's 4th District
40%favorable+1.5 up this week

The Democratic nominee for South C's 4th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Martin MacAllister.

Martin MacAllisterRepublican · Incumbent
50%approve+0.9 up this week

Has represented South C's 4th District in the House since January 2021. Known at home for the hospital merger; in Washington for the local port. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Yusuf Chowdhury.

  • The hospital merger
  • The local port

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.