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U.S. Representative for New J's 4th District
U.S. Representative for New J's 4th District · November 3, 2026Safe R

Galvez is all but certain to win another term

Tobias LindqvistDemocratic · Challenger
2%chance of winning
Reggie GalvezRepublican · Incumbent
98%chance of winning
Lindqvist 39.3%Projected vote · R+19.3 ± 9.0Galvez 58.7%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+42.5 — Galvez winsSimulation 2: R+38.8 — Galvez winsSimulation 3: R+36.9 — Galvez winsSimulation 4: R+35.6 — Galvez winsSimulation 5: R+34.6 — Galvez winsSimulation 6: R+33.7 — Galvez winsSimulation 7: R+32.9 — Galvez winsSimulation 8: R+32.3 — Galvez winsSimulation 9: R+31.6 — Galvez winsSimulation 10: R+31.1 — Galvez winsSimulation 11: R+30.6 — Galvez winsSimulation 12: R+30.1 — Galvez winsSimulation 13: R+29.7 — Galvez winsSimulation 14: R+29.2 — Galvez winsSimulation 15: R+28.8 — Galvez winsSimulation 16: R+28.4 — Galvez winsSimulation 17: R+28.1 — Galvez winsSimulation 18: R+27.7 — Galvez winsSimulation 19: R+27.4 — Galvez winsSimulation 20: R+27 — Galvez winsSimulation 21: R+26.7 — Galvez winsSimulation 22: R+26.4 — Galvez winsSimulation 23: R+26.1 — Galvez winsSimulation 24: R+25.8 — Galvez winsSimulation 25: R+25.5 — Galvez winsSimulation 26: R+25.2 — Galvez winsSimulation 27: R+25 — Galvez winsSimulation 28: R+24.7 — Galvez winsSimulation 29: R+24.4 — Galvez winsSimulation 30: R+24.1 — Galvez winsSimulation 31: R+23.9 — Galvez winsSimulation 32: R+23.6 — Galvez winsSimulation 33: R+23.4 — Galvez winsSimulation 34: R+23.1 — Galvez winsSimulation 35: R+22.9 — Galvez winsSimulation 36: R+22.6 — Galvez winsSimulation 37: R+22.4 — Galvez winsSimulation 38: R+22.2 — Galvez winsSimulation 39: R+21.9 — Galvez winsSimulation 40: R+21.7 — Galvez winsSimulation 41: R+21.5 — Galvez winsSimulation 42: R+21.2 — Galvez winsSimulation 43: R+21 — Galvez winsSimulation 44: R+20.8 — Galvez winsSimulation 45: R+20.5 — Galvez winsSimulation 46: R+20.3 — Galvez winsSimulation 47: R+20.1 — Galvez winsSimulation 48: R+19.9 — Galvez winsSimulation 49: R+19.6 — Galvez winsSimulation 50: R+19.4 — Galvez winsSimulation 51: R+19.2 — Galvez winsSimulation 52: R+19 — Galvez winsSimulation 53: R+18.7 — Galvez winsSimulation 54: R+18.5 — Galvez winsSimulation 55: R+18.3 — Galvez winsSimulation 56: R+18.1 — Galvez winsSimulation 57: R+17.8 — Galvez winsSimulation 58: R+17.6 — Galvez winsSimulation 59: R+17.4 — Galvez winsSimulation 60: R+17.1 — Galvez winsSimulation 61: R+16.9 — Galvez winsSimulation 62: R+16.7 — Galvez winsSimulation 63: R+16.4 — Galvez winsSimulation 64: R+16.2 — Galvez winsSimulation 65: R+16 — Galvez winsSimulation 66: R+15.7 — Galvez winsSimulation 67: R+15.5 — Galvez winsSimulation 68: R+15.2 — Galvez winsSimulation 69: R+15 — Galvez winsSimulation 70: R+14.7 — Galvez winsSimulation 71: R+14.5 — Galvez winsSimulation 72: R+14.2 — Galvez winsSimulation 73: R+13.9 — Galvez winsSimulation 74: R+13.6 — Galvez winsSimulation 75: R+13.4 — Galvez winsSimulation 76: R+13.1 — Galvez winsSimulation 77: R+12.8 — Galvez winsSimulation 78: R+12.5 — Galvez winsSimulation 79: R+12.2 — Galvez winsSimulation 80: R+11.9 — Galvez winsSimulation 81: R+11.6 — Galvez winsSimulation 82: R+11.2 — Galvez winsSimulation 83: R+10.9 — Galvez winsSimulation 84: R+10.5 — Galvez winsSimulation 85: R+10.2 — Galvez winsSimulation 86: R+9.8 — Galvez winsSimulation 87: R+9.4 — Galvez winsSimulation 88: R+8.9 — Galvez winsSimulation 89: R+8.5 — Galvez winsSimulation 90: R+8 — Galvez winsSimulation 91: R+7.5 — Galvez winsSimulation 92: R+7 — Galvez winsSimulation 93: R+6.3 — Galvez winsSimulation 94: R+5.7 — Galvez winsSimulation 95: R+4.9 — Galvez winsSimulation 96: R+4 — Galvez winsSimulation 97: R+3 — Galvez winsSimulation 98: R+1.7 — Galvez winsSimulation 99: D+0.2 — Lindqvist winsSimulation 100: D+3.9 — Lindqvist winsR+50R+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10
Lindqvist wins 2 of 100Galvez wins 98

The forecast over time

One point a day
LindqvistGalvez
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Lindqvist 2%Galvez 98%
Show the forecast as a table
DateLindqvistGalvezMargin
Sep 16%94%R+18.5
Sep 225%95%R+18.3
Oct 133%97%R+19.4
Oct 302%98%R+19.3

The ratings

CNN
Safe RR+17.5

New J's 4th: Safe R. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Safe RR+21.4

New J's 4th: Safe R. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
New J 4thR+16100%R+19.3

The candidates

Tobias LindqvistDemocratic · Candidate for New J's 4th District
39%favorable−0.8 down this week

The Democratic nominee for New J's 4th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Reggie Galvez.

Reggie GalvezRepublican · Incumbent
54%approve+0.7 up this week

Has represented New J's 4th District in the House since January 2013. Known at home for transit money for the district; in Washington for public safety grants. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Tobias Lindqvist.

  • Transit money for the district
  • Public safety grants

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.