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U.S. Representative for New J's 10th District
U.S. Representative for New J's 10th District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Prendergast is all but certain to win another term

Alicia PrendergastDemocratic · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Kara RaffertyRepublican · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Prendergast 71.5%Projected vote · D+45 ± 9.0Rafferty 26.5%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: D+21.8 — Prendergast winsSimulation 2: D+25.5 — Prendergast winsSimulation 3: D+27.4 — Prendergast winsSimulation 4: D+28.7 — Prendergast winsSimulation 5: D+29.7 — Prendergast winsSimulation 6: D+30.6 — Prendergast winsSimulation 7: D+31.4 — Prendergast winsSimulation 8: D+32 — Prendergast winsSimulation 9: D+32.7 — Prendergast winsSimulation 10: D+33.2 — Prendergast winsSimulation 11: D+33.7 — Prendergast winsSimulation 12: D+34.2 — Prendergast winsSimulation 13: D+34.6 — Prendergast winsSimulation 14: D+35.1 — Prendergast winsSimulation 15: D+35.5 — Prendergast winsSimulation 16: D+35.9 — Prendergast winsSimulation 17: D+36.2 — Prendergast winsSimulation 18: D+36.6 — Prendergast winsSimulation 19: D+36.9 — Prendergast winsSimulation 20: D+37.3 — Prendergast winsSimulation 21: D+37.6 — Prendergast winsSimulation 22: D+37.9 — Prendergast winsSimulation 23: D+38.2 — Prendergast winsSimulation 24: D+38.5 — Prendergast winsSimulation 25: D+38.8 — Prendergast winsSimulation 26: D+39.1 — Prendergast winsSimulation 27: D+39.3 — Prendergast winsSimulation 28: D+39.6 — Prendergast winsSimulation 29: D+39.9 — Prendergast winsSimulation 30: D+40.2 — Prendergast winsSimulation 31: D+40.4 — Prendergast winsSimulation 32: D+40.7 — Prendergast winsSimulation 33: D+40.9 — Prendergast winsSimulation 34: D+41.2 — Prendergast winsSimulation 35: D+41.4 — Prendergast winsSimulation 36: D+41.7 — Prendergast winsSimulation 37: D+41.9 — Prendergast winsSimulation 38: D+42.1 — Prendergast winsSimulation 39: D+42.4 — Prendergast winsSimulation 40: D+42.6 — Prendergast winsSimulation 41: D+42.8 — Prendergast winsSimulation 42: D+43.1 — Prendergast winsSimulation 43: D+43.3 — Prendergast winsSimulation 44: D+43.5 — Prendergast winsSimulation 45: D+43.8 — Prendergast winsSimulation 46: D+44 — Prendergast winsSimulation 47: D+44.2 — Prendergast winsSimulation 48: D+44.4 — Prendergast winsSimulation 49: D+44.7 — Prendergast winsSimulation 50: D+44.9 — Prendergast winsSimulation 51: D+45.1 — Prendergast winsSimulation 52: D+45.3 — Prendergast winsSimulation 53: D+45.6 — Prendergast winsSimulation 54: D+45.8 — Prendergast winsSimulation 55: D+46 — Prendergast winsSimulation 56: D+46.2 — Prendergast winsSimulation 57: D+46.5 — Prendergast winsSimulation 58: D+46.7 — Prendergast winsSimulation 59: D+46.9 — Prendergast winsSimulation 60: D+47.2 — Prendergast winsSimulation 61: D+47.4 — Prendergast winsSimulation 62: D+47.6 — Prendergast winsSimulation 63: D+47.9 — Prendergast winsSimulation 64: D+48.1 — Prendergast winsSimulation 65: D+48.3 — Prendergast winsSimulation 66: D+48.6 — Prendergast winsSimulation 67: D+48.8 — Prendergast winsSimulation 68: D+49.1 — Prendergast winsSimulation 69: D+49.3 — Prendergast winsSimulation 70: D+49.6 — Prendergast winsSimulation 71: D+49.8 — Prendergast winsSimulation 72: D+50.1 — Prendergast winsSimulation 73: D+50.4 — Prendergast winsSimulation 74: D+50.7 — Prendergast winsSimulation 75: D+50.9 — Prendergast winsSimulation 76: D+51.2 — Prendergast winsSimulation 77: D+51.5 — Prendergast winsSimulation 78: D+51.8 — Prendergast winsSimulation 79: D+52.1 — Prendergast winsSimulation 80: D+52.4 — Prendergast winsSimulation 81: D+52.7 — Prendergast winsSimulation 82: D+53.1 — Prendergast winsSimulation 83: D+53.4 — Prendergast winsSimulation 84: D+53.8 — Prendergast winsSimulation 85: D+54.1 — Prendergast winsSimulation 86: D+54.5 — Prendergast winsSimulation 87: D+54.9 — Prendergast winsSimulation 88: D+55.4 — Prendergast winsSimulation 89: D+55.8 — Prendergast winsSimulation 90: D+56.3 — Prendergast winsSimulation 91: D+56.8 — Prendergast winsSimulation 92: D+57.3 — Prendergast winsSimulation 93: D+58 — Prendergast winsSimulation 94: D+58.6 — Prendergast winsSimulation 95: D+59.4 — Prendergast winsSimulation 96: D+60.3 — Prendergast winsSimulation 97: D+61.3 — Prendergast winsSimulation 98: D+62.6 — Prendergast winsSimulation 99: D+64.5 — Prendergast winsSimulation 100: D+68.2 — Prendergast winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50D+60D+70
Prendergast wins 100 of 100Rafferty wins 0

The forecast over time

One point a day
PrendergastRafferty
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Prendergast >99%Rafferty <1%
Show the forecast as a table
DatePrendergastRaffertyMargin
Sep 1>99%<1%D+45.7
Sep 22>99%<1%D+45.8
Oct 13>99%<1%D+44.7
Oct 30>99%<1%D+45

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+47.4

Safe D in New J's 10th; Prendergast is favored by our team.

FOX News
Safe DD+41.8

Safe D. New J's 10th voters care about prices, not pundits.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
New J 10thD+40100%D+45

The candidates

Alicia PrendergastDemocratic · Incumbent
46%approve−0.3 down this week

Has represented New J's 10th District in the House since January 2025. Known at home for the local port; in Washington for the hospital merger. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Kara Rafferty.

  • The local port
  • The hospital merger
Kara RaffertyRepublican · Candidate for New J's 10th District
40%favorable+1.4 up this week

The Republican nominee for New J's 10th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Alicia Prendergast.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.