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U.S. Representative for North C's 8th District
U.S. Representative for North C's 8th District · November 3, 2026Safe R

Haldane is clearly favored to win another term

Vikram BergstromDemocratic · Challenger
2%chance of winning
Nathan HaldaneRepublican · Incumbent
98%chance of winning
Bergstrom 40.2%Projected vote · R+17.6 ± 9.0Haldane 57.8%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+40.8 — Haldane winsSimulation 2: R+37.1 — Haldane winsSimulation 3: R+35.2 — Haldane winsSimulation 4: R+33.9 — Haldane winsSimulation 5: R+32.9 — Haldane winsSimulation 6: R+32 — Haldane winsSimulation 7: R+31.2 — Haldane winsSimulation 8: R+30.6 — Haldane winsSimulation 9: R+29.9 — Haldane winsSimulation 10: R+29.4 — Haldane winsSimulation 11: R+28.9 — Haldane winsSimulation 12: R+28.4 — Haldane winsSimulation 13: R+28 — Haldane winsSimulation 14: R+27.5 — Haldane winsSimulation 15: R+27.1 — Haldane winsSimulation 16: R+26.7 — Haldane winsSimulation 17: R+26.4 — Haldane winsSimulation 18: R+26 — Haldane winsSimulation 19: R+25.7 — Haldane winsSimulation 20: R+25.3 — Haldane winsSimulation 21: R+25 — Haldane winsSimulation 22: R+24.7 — Haldane winsSimulation 23: R+24.4 — Haldane winsSimulation 24: R+24.1 — Haldane winsSimulation 25: R+23.8 — Haldane winsSimulation 26: R+23.5 — Haldane winsSimulation 27: R+23.3 — Haldane winsSimulation 28: R+23 — Haldane winsSimulation 29: R+22.7 — Haldane winsSimulation 30: R+22.4 — Haldane winsSimulation 31: R+22.2 — Haldane winsSimulation 32: R+21.9 — Haldane winsSimulation 33: R+21.7 — Haldane winsSimulation 34: R+21.4 — Haldane winsSimulation 35: R+21.2 — Haldane winsSimulation 36: R+20.9 — Haldane winsSimulation 37: R+20.7 — Haldane winsSimulation 38: R+20.5 — Haldane winsSimulation 39: R+20.2 — Haldane winsSimulation 40: R+20 — Haldane winsSimulation 41: R+19.8 — Haldane winsSimulation 42: R+19.5 — Haldane winsSimulation 43: R+19.3 — Haldane winsSimulation 44: R+19.1 — Haldane winsSimulation 45: R+18.8 — Haldane winsSimulation 46: R+18.6 — Haldane winsSimulation 47: R+18.4 — Haldane winsSimulation 48: R+18.2 — Haldane winsSimulation 49: R+17.9 — Haldane winsSimulation 50: R+17.7 — Haldane winsSimulation 51: R+17.5 — Haldane winsSimulation 52: R+17.3 — Haldane winsSimulation 53: R+17 — Haldane winsSimulation 54: R+16.8 — Haldane winsSimulation 55: R+16.6 — Haldane winsSimulation 56: R+16.4 — Haldane winsSimulation 57: R+16.1 — Haldane winsSimulation 58: R+15.9 — Haldane winsSimulation 59: R+15.7 — Haldane winsSimulation 60: R+15.4 — Haldane winsSimulation 61: R+15.2 — Haldane winsSimulation 62: R+15 — Haldane winsSimulation 63: R+14.7 — Haldane winsSimulation 64: R+14.5 — Haldane winsSimulation 65: R+14.3 — Haldane winsSimulation 66: R+14 — Haldane winsSimulation 67: R+13.8 — Haldane winsSimulation 68: R+13.5 — Haldane winsSimulation 69: R+13.3 — Haldane winsSimulation 70: R+13 — Haldane winsSimulation 71: R+12.8 — Haldane winsSimulation 72: R+12.5 — Haldane winsSimulation 73: R+12.2 — Haldane winsSimulation 74: R+11.9 — Haldane winsSimulation 75: R+11.7 — Haldane winsSimulation 76: R+11.4 — Haldane winsSimulation 77: R+11.1 — Haldane winsSimulation 78: R+10.8 — Haldane winsSimulation 79: R+10.5 — Haldane winsSimulation 80: R+10.2 — Haldane winsSimulation 81: R+9.9 — Haldane winsSimulation 82: R+9.5 — Haldane winsSimulation 83: R+9.2 — Haldane winsSimulation 84: R+8.8 — Haldane winsSimulation 85: R+8.5 — Haldane winsSimulation 86: R+8.1 — Haldane winsSimulation 87: R+7.7 — Haldane winsSimulation 88: R+7.2 — Haldane winsSimulation 89: R+6.8 — Haldane winsSimulation 90: R+6.3 — Haldane winsSimulation 91: R+5.8 — Haldane winsSimulation 92: R+5.3 — Haldane winsSimulation 93: R+4.6 — Haldane winsSimulation 94: R+4 — Haldane winsSimulation 95: R+3.2 — Haldane winsSimulation 96: R+2.3 — Haldane winsSimulation 97: R+1.3 — Haldane winsSimulation 98: Even — Bergstrom winsSimulation 99: D+1.9 — Bergstrom winsSimulation 100: D+5.6 — Bergstrom winsR+50R+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10
Bergstrom wins 3 of 100Haldane wins 97

The forecast over time

One point a day
BergstromHaldane
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Bergstrom 2%Haldane 98%
Show the forecast as a table
DateBergstromHaldaneMargin
Sep 17%93%R+17.4
Sep 226%94%R+16.9
Oct 134%96%R+18.1
Oct 302%98%R+17.6

The ratings

CNN
Safe RR+15.7

North C's 8th: Safe R. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Safe RR+19.7

North C's 8th: Safe R. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
North C 8thR+17100%R+17.6

The candidates

Vikram BergstromDemocratic · Candidate for North C's 8th District
41%favorable+0.3 up this week

The Democratic nominee for North C's 8th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Nathan Haldane.

Nathan HaldaneRepublican · Incumbent
43%approve−0.3 down this week

Has represented North C's 8th District in the House since January 2023. Known at home for the highway rebuild; in Washington for broadband. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Vikram Bergstrom.

  • The highway rebuild
  • Broadband

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:30 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.