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U.S. Representative for New J's 2nd District
U.S. Representative for New J's 2nd District · November 3, 2026Lean R

Olivares is favored to win another term

Sean FogartyDemocratic · Challenger
19%chance of winning
Carlos OlivaresRepublican · Incumbent
81%chance of winning
Fogarty 45.1%Projected vote · R+7.8 ± 9.0Olivares 52.9%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+31 — Olivares winsSimulation 2: R+27.3 — Olivares winsSimulation 3: R+25.4 — Olivares winsSimulation 4: R+24.1 — Olivares winsSimulation 5: R+23.1 — Olivares winsSimulation 6: R+22.2 — Olivares winsSimulation 7: R+21.4 — Olivares winsSimulation 8: R+20.8 — Olivares winsSimulation 9: R+20.1 — Olivares winsSimulation 10: R+19.6 — Olivares winsSimulation 11: R+19.1 — Olivares winsSimulation 12: R+18.6 — Olivares winsSimulation 13: R+18.2 — Olivares winsSimulation 14: R+17.7 — Olivares winsSimulation 15: R+17.3 — Olivares winsSimulation 16: R+16.9 — Olivares winsSimulation 17: R+16.6 — Olivares winsSimulation 18: R+16.2 — Olivares winsSimulation 19: R+15.9 — Olivares winsSimulation 20: R+15.5 — Olivares winsSimulation 21: R+15.2 — Olivares winsSimulation 22: R+14.9 — Olivares winsSimulation 23: R+14.6 — Olivares winsSimulation 24: R+14.3 — Olivares winsSimulation 25: R+14 — Olivares winsSimulation 26: R+13.7 — Olivares winsSimulation 27: R+13.5 — Olivares winsSimulation 28: R+13.2 — Olivares winsSimulation 29: R+12.9 — Olivares winsSimulation 30: R+12.6 — Olivares winsSimulation 31: R+12.4 — Olivares winsSimulation 32: R+12.1 — Olivares winsSimulation 33: R+11.9 — Olivares winsSimulation 34: R+11.6 — Olivares winsSimulation 35: R+11.4 — Olivares winsSimulation 36: R+11.1 — Olivares winsSimulation 37: R+10.9 — Olivares winsSimulation 38: R+10.7 — Olivares winsSimulation 39: R+10.4 — Olivares winsSimulation 40: R+10.2 — Olivares winsSimulation 41: R+10 — Olivares winsSimulation 42: R+9.7 — Olivares winsSimulation 43: R+9.5 — Olivares winsSimulation 44: R+9.3 — Olivares winsSimulation 45: R+9 — Olivares winsSimulation 46: R+8.8 — Olivares winsSimulation 47: R+8.6 — Olivares winsSimulation 48: R+8.4 — Olivares winsSimulation 49: R+8.1 — Olivares winsSimulation 50: R+7.9 — Olivares winsSimulation 51: R+7.7 — Olivares winsSimulation 52: R+7.5 — Olivares winsSimulation 53: R+7.2 — Olivares winsSimulation 54: R+7 — Olivares winsSimulation 55: R+6.8 — Olivares winsSimulation 56: R+6.6 — Olivares winsSimulation 57: R+6.3 — Olivares winsSimulation 58: R+6.1 — Olivares winsSimulation 59: R+5.9 — Olivares winsSimulation 60: R+5.6 — Olivares winsSimulation 61: R+5.4 — Olivares winsSimulation 62: R+5.2 — Olivares winsSimulation 63: R+4.9 — Olivares winsSimulation 64: R+4.7 — Olivares winsSimulation 65: R+4.5 — Olivares winsSimulation 66: R+4.2 — Olivares winsSimulation 67: R+4 — Olivares winsSimulation 68: R+3.7 — Olivares winsSimulation 69: R+3.5 — Olivares winsSimulation 70: R+3.2 — Olivares winsSimulation 71: R+3 — Olivares winsSimulation 72: R+2.7 — Olivares winsSimulation 73: R+2.4 — Olivares winsSimulation 74: R+2.1 — Olivares winsSimulation 75: R+1.9 — Olivares winsSimulation 76: R+1.6 — Olivares winsSimulation 77: R+1.3 — Olivares winsSimulation 78: R+1 — Olivares winsSimulation 79: R+0.7 — Olivares winsSimulation 80: R+0.4 — Olivares winsSimulation 81: R+0.1 — Olivares winsSimulation 82: D+0.3 — Fogarty winsSimulation 83: D+0.6 — Fogarty winsSimulation 84: D+1 — Fogarty winsSimulation 85: D+1.3 — Fogarty winsSimulation 86: D+1.7 — Fogarty winsSimulation 87: D+2.1 — Fogarty winsSimulation 88: D+2.6 — Fogarty winsSimulation 89: D+3 — Fogarty winsSimulation 90: D+3.5 — Fogarty winsSimulation 91: D+4 — Fogarty winsSimulation 92: D+4.5 — Fogarty winsSimulation 93: D+5.2 — Fogarty winsSimulation 94: D+5.8 — Fogarty winsSimulation 95: D+6.6 — Fogarty winsSimulation 96: D+7.5 — Fogarty winsSimulation 97: D+8.5 — Fogarty winsSimulation 98: D+9.8 — Fogarty winsSimulation 99: D+11.7 — Fogarty winsSimulation 100: D+15.4 — Fogarty winsR+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
Fogarty wins 19 of 100Olivares wins 81

The forecast over time

One point a day
FogartyOlivares
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayFogarty 19%Olivares 81%
Show the forecast as a table
DateFogartyOlivaresMargin
Sep 127%73%R+7.3
Sep 2226%74%R+7.4
Oct 1321%79%R+8.3
Oct 3019%81%R+7.8

The ratings

CNN
Lean RR+6.3

New J's 2nd: Lean R. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Likely RR+10.2

Likely R. New J's 2nd voters care about prices, not pundits.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
New J 2ndR+6100%R+7.8

The candidates

Sean FogartyDemocratic · Candidate for New J's 2nd District
44%favorable−0.1 down this week

The Democratic nominee for New J's 2nd District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Carlos Olivares.

Carlos OlivaresRepublican · Incumbent
51%approve−1.1 down this week

Has represented New J's 2nd District in the House since January 2017. Known at home for small-business loans; in Washington for housing costs. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Sean Fogarty.

  • Small-business loans
  • Housing costs

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.