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U.S. Representative for New A's 1st District · Lower Man A
U.S. Representative for New A's 1st District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Kaszuba is all but certain to win another term

Carlos KaszubaDemocratic · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Owen DevereauxRepublican · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Kaszuba 71.0%Projected vote · D+44 ± 9.0Devereaux 27.0%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: D+20.8 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 2: D+24.5 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 3: D+26.4 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 4: D+27.7 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 5: D+28.7 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 6: D+29.6 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 7: D+30.4 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 8: D+31 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 9: D+31.7 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 10: D+32.2 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 11: D+32.7 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 12: D+33.2 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 13: D+33.6 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 14: D+34.1 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 15: D+34.5 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 16: D+34.9 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 17: D+35.2 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 18: D+35.6 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 19: D+35.9 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 20: D+36.3 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 21: D+36.6 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 22: D+36.9 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 23: D+37.2 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 24: D+37.5 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 25: D+37.8 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 26: D+38.1 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 27: D+38.3 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 28: D+38.6 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 29: D+38.9 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 30: D+39.2 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 31: D+39.4 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 32: D+39.7 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 33: D+39.9 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 34: D+40.2 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 35: D+40.4 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 36: D+40.7 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 37: D+40.9 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 38: D+41.1 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 39: D+41.4 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 40: D+41.6 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 41: D+41.8 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 42: D+42.1 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 43: D+42.3 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 44: D+42.5 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 45: D+42.8 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 46: D+43 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 47: D+43.2 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 48: D+43.4 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 49: D+43.7 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 50: D+43.9 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 51: D+44.1 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 52: D+44.3 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 53: D+44.6 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 54: D+44.8 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 55: D+45 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 56: D+45.2 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 57: D+45.5 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 58: D+45.7 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 59: D+45.9 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 60: D+46.2 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 61: D+46.4 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 62: D+46.6 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 63: D+46.9 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 64: D+47.1 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 65: D+47.3 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 66: D+47.6 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 67: D+47.8 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 68: D+48.1 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 69: D+48.3 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 70: D+48.6 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 71: D+48.8 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 72: D+49.1 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 73: D+49.4 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 74: D+49.7 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 75: D+49.9 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 76: D+50.2 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 77: D+50.5 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 78: D+50.8 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 79: D+51.1 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 80: D+51.4 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 81: D+51.7 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 82: D+52.1 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 83: D+52.4 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 84: D+52.8 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 85: D+53.1 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 86: D+53.5 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 87: D+53.9 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 88: D+54.4 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 89: D+54.8 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 90: D+55.3 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 91: D+55.8 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 92: D+56.3 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 93: D+57 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 94: D+57.6 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 95: D+58.4 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 96: D+59.3 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 97: D+60.3 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 98: D+61.6 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 99: D+63.5 — Kaszuba winsSimulation 100: D+67.2 — Kaszuba winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50D+60D+70
Kaszuba wins 100 of 100Devereaux wins 0

The forecast over time

One point a day
KaszubaDevereaux
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Kaszuba >99%Devereaux <1%
  1. Oct 2Election autumn is good business: New A’s broadcasters book their best quarter as campaign ads fill every breakR+0.4
  2. Sep 14New A 1 poll, borough by borough: Hochul leads by 11 — Man A and The BX carry her, Long Island and New S do notD+0.3
  3. Sep 6Independence Tower designated a landmarkD+0.4
  4. Sep 5New BK first, Man A second: City Hall corrects the founding recordD+0.4
Show the forecast as a table
DateKaszubaDevereauxMargin
Sep 1>99%<1%D+44
Sep 22>99%<1%D+45
Oct 13>99%<1%D+43.7
Oct 30>99%<1%D+44

The ratings

PIX 11 Long Island
Safe DD+43.3

Safe D. Kaszuba by about 43 in New A's 1st — closer than the yard signs suggest.

New A 1
Safe DD+44.5

New A's 1st — Safe D. Our borough desk sees Kaszuba holding on.

CNN
Safe DD+44.6

New A's 1st: Safe D. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Safe DD+42

Safe D in New A's 1st. Devereaux has the momentum on the economy.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Lower Man AD+38100%D+44

The candidates

Carlos KaszubaDemocratic · Incumbent
52%approve−0.1 down this week

Has represented New A's 1st District (Lower Man A) in the House since January 2021. Known at home for small-business loans; in Washington for housing costs. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Owen Devereaux.

  • Small-business loans
  • Housing costs
Owen DevereauxRepublican · Candidate for New A's 1st District
42%favorable0.0 unchanged this week

The Republican nominee for New A's 1st District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Carlos Kaszuba.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 9:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.