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U.S. Representative for New J's 5th District
U.S. Representative for New J's 5th District · November 3, 2026Likely D

Harrow is favored to win another term

Deepa HarrowDemocratic · Incumbent
86%chance of winning
Irene LeandroRepublican · Challenger
14%chance of winning
Harrow 53.8%Projected vote · D+9.6 ± 9.0Leandro 44.2%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+13.6 — Leandro winsSimulation 2: R+9.9 — Leandro winsSimulation 3: R+8 — Leandro winsSimulation 4: R+6.7 — Leandro winsSimulation 5: R+5.7 — Leandro winsSimulation 6: R+4.8 — Leandro winsSimulation 7: R+4 — Leandro winsSimulation 8: R+3.4 — Leandro winsSimulation 9: R+2.7 — Leandro winsSimulation 10: R+2.2 — Leandro winsSimulation 11: R+1.7 — Leandro winsSimulation 12: R+1.2 — Leandro winsSimulation 13: R+0.8 — Leandro winsSimulation 14: R+0.3 — Leandro winsSimulation 15: D+0.1 — Harrow winsSimulation 16: D+0.5 — Harrow winsSimulation 17: D+0.8 — Harrow winsSimulation 18: D+1.2 — Harrow winsSimulation 19: D+1.5 — Harrow winsSimulation 20: D+1.9 — Harrow winsSimulation 21: D+2.2 — Harrow winsSimulation 22: D+2.5 — Harrow winsSimulation 23: D+2.8 — Harrow winsSimulation 24: D+3.1 — Harrow winsSimulation 25: D+3.4 — Harrow winsSimulation 26: D+3.7 — Harrow winsSimulation 27: D+3.9 — Harrow winsSimulation 28: D+4.2 — Harrow winsSimulation 29: D+4.5 — Harrow winsSimulation 30: D+4.8 — Harrow winsSimulation 31: D+5 — Harrow winsSimulation 32: D+5.3 — Harrow winsSimulation 33: D+5.5 — Harrow winsSimulation 34: D+5.8 — Harrow winsSimulation 35: D+6 — Harrow winsSimulation 36: D+6.3 — Harrow winsSimulation 37: D+6.5 — Harrow winsSimulation 38: D+6.7 — Harrow winsSimulation 39: D+7 — Harrow winsSimulation 40: D+7.2 — Harrow winsSimulation 41: D+7.4 — Harrow winsSimulation 42: D+7.7 — Harrow winsSimulation 43: D+7.9 — Harrow winsSimulation 44: D+8.1 — Harrow winsSimulation 45: D+8.4 — Harrow winsSimulation 46: D+8.6 — Harrow winsSimulation 47: D+8.8 — Harrow winsSimulation 48: D+9 — Harrow winsSimulation 49: D+9.3 — Harrow winsSimulation 50: D+9.5 — Harrow winsSimulation 51: D+9.7 — Harrow winsSimulation 52: D+9.9 — Harrow winsSimulation 53: D+10.2 — Harrow winsSimulation 54: D+10.4 — Harrow winsSimulation 55: D+10.6 — Harrow winsSimulation 56: D+10.8 — Harrow winsSimulation 57: D+11.1 — Harrow winsSimulation 58: D+11.3 — Harrow winsSimulation 59: D+11.5 — Harrow winsSimulation 60: D+11.8 — Harrow winsSimulation 61: D+12 — Harrow winsSimulation 62: D+12.2 — Harrow winsSimulation 63: D+12.5 — Harrow winsSimulation 64: D+12.7 — Harrow winsSimulation 65: D+12.9 — Harrow winsSimulation 66: D+13.2 — Harrow winsSimulation 67: D+13.4 — Harrow winsSimulation 68: D+13.7 — Harrow winsSimulation 69: D+13.9 — Harrow winsSimulation 70: D+14.2 — Harrow winsSimulation 71: D+14.4 — Harrow winsSimulation 72: D+14.7 — Harrow winsSimulation 73: D+15 — Harrow winsSimulation 74: D+15.3 — Harrow winsSimulation 75: D+15.5 — Harrow winsSimulation 76: D+15.8 — Harrow winsSimulation 77: D+16.1 — Harrow winsSimulation 78: D+16.4 — Harrow winsSimulation 79: D+16.7 — Harrow winsSimulation 80: D+17 — Harrow winsSimulation 81: D+17.3 — Harrow winsSimulation 82: D+17.7 — Harrow winsSimulation 83: D+18 — Harrow winsSimulation 84: D+18.4 — Harrow winsSimulation 85: D+18.7 — Harrow winsSimulation 86: D+19.1 — Harrow winsSimulation 87: D+19.5 — Harrow winsSimulation 88: D+20 — Harrow winsSimulation 89: D+20.4 — Harrow winsSimulation 90: D+20.9 — Harrow winsSimulation 91: D+21.4 — Harrow winsSimulation 92: D+21.9 — Harrow winsSimulation 93: D+22.6 — Harrow winsSimulation 94: D+23.2 — Harrow winsSimulation 95: D+24 — Harrow winsSimulation 96: D+24.9 — Harrow winsSimulation 97: D+25.9 — Harrow winsSimulation 98: D+27.2 — Harrow winsSimulation 99: D+29.1 — Harrow winsSimulation 100: D+32.8 — Harrow winsR+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40
Harrow wins 86 of 100Leandro wins 14

The forecast over time

One point a day
HarrowLeandro
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayHarrow 86%Leandro 14%
Show the forecast as a table
DateHarrowLeandroMargin
Sep 181%19%D+10.3
Sep 2282%18%D+10.3
Oct 1383%17%D+9.7
Oct 3086%14%D+9.6

The ratings

CNN
Likely DD+11.6

Likely D in New J's 5th; Harrow is favored by our team.

FOX News
Likely DD+8.2

New J's 5th: Likely D. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
New J 5thD+4100%D+9.6

The candidates

Deepa HarrowDemocratic · Incumbent
54%approve−0.5 down this week

Has represented New J's 5th District in the House since January 2025. Known at home for the local port; in Washington for the hospital merger. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Irene Leandro.

  • The local port
  • The hospital merger
Irene LeandroRepublican · Candidate for New J's 5th District
44%favorable0.0 unchanged this week

The Republican nominee for New J's 5th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Deepa Harrow.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.