U.S. Representative for Penn A's 15th District · November 3, 2026 Safe R
Ostergaard is all but certain to win another term
Jamal Sauvage Democratic · Challenger
1% chance of winning
Quentin Ostergaard Republican · Incumbent
99% chance of winning
99%
Sauvage 38.9% Projected vote · R+20.2 ± 9.0 Ostergaard 59.1%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+43.4 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 2: R+39.7 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 3: R+37.8 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 4: R+36.5 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 5: R+35.5 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 6: R+34.6 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 7: R+33.8 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 8: R+33.2 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 9: R+32.5 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 10: R+32 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 11: R+31.5 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 12: R+31 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 13: R+30.6 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 14: R+30.1 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 15: R+29.7 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 16: R+29.3 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 17: R+29 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 18: R+28.6 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 19: R+28.3 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 20: R+27.9 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 21: R+27.6 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 22: R+27.3 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 23: R+27 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 24: R+26.7 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 25: R+26.4 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 26: R+26.1 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 27: R+25.9 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 28: R+25.6 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 29: R+25.3 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 30: R+25 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 31: R+24.8 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 32: R+24.5 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 33: R+24.3 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 34: R+24 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 35: R+23.8 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 36: R+23.5 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 37: R+23.3 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 38: R+23.1 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 39: R+22.8 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 40: R+22.6 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 41: R+22.4 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 42: R+22.1 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 43: R+21.9 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 44: R+21.7 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 45: R+21.4 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 46: R+21.2 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 47: R+21 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 48: R+20.8 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 49: R+20.5 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 50: R+20.3 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 51: R+20.1 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 52: R+19.9 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 53: R+19.6 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 54: R+19.4 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 55: R+19.2 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 56: R+19 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 57: R+18.7 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 58: R+18.5 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 59: R+18.3 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 60: R+18 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 61: R+17.8 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 62: R+17.6 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 63: R+17.3 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 64: R+17.1 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 65: R+16.9 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 66: R+16.6 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 67: R+16.4 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 68: R+16.1 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 69: R+15.9 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 70: R+15.6 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 71: R+15.4 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 72: R+15.1 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 73: R+14.8 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 74: R+14.5 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 75: R+14.3 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 76: R+14 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 77: R+13.7 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 78: R+13.4 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 79: R+13.1 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 80: R+12.8 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 81: R+12.5 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 82: R+12.1 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 83: R+11.8 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 84: R+11.4 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 85: R+11.1 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 86: R+10.7 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 87: R+10.3 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 88: R+9.8 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 89: R+9.4 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 90: R+8.9 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 91: R+8.4 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 92: R+7.9 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 93: R+7.2 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 94: R+6.6 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 95: R+5.8 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 96: R+4.9 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 97: R+3.9 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 98: R+2.6 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 99: R+0.7 — Ostergaard wins Simulation 100: D+3 — Sauvage wins R+50 R+40 R+30 R+20 R+10 Even D+10 Sauvage wins 1 of 100Ostergaard wins 99