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U.S. Representative for Penn A's 4th District
U.S. Representative for Penn A's 4th District · November 3, 2026Likely D

Winslow is clearly favored to win another term

Quentin WinslowDemocratic · Incumbent
93%chance of winning
Jerome NorwoodRepublican · Challenger
7%chance of winning
Winslow 55.6%Projected vote · D+13.2 ± 9.0Norwood 42.4%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+10 — Norwood winsSimulation 2: R+6.3 — Norwood winsSimulation 3: R+4.4 — Norwood winsSimulation 4: R+3.1 — Norwood winsSimulation 5: R+2.1 — Norwood winsSimulation 6: R+1.2 — Norwood winsSimulation 7: R+0.4 — Norwood winsSimulation 8: D+0.2 — Winslow winsSimulation 9: D+0.9 — Winslow winsSimulation 10: D+1.4 — Winslow winsSimulation 11: D+1.9 — Winslow winsSimulation 12: D+2.4 — Winslow winsSimulation 13: D+2.8 — Winslow winsSimulation 14: D+3.3 — Winslow winsSimulation 15: D+3.7 — Winslow winsSimulation 16: D+4.1 — Winslow winsSimulation 17: D+4.4 — Winslow winsSimulation 18: D+4.8 — Winslow winsSimulation 19: D+5.1 — Winslow winsSimulation 20: D+5.5 — Winslow winsSimulation 21: D+5.8 — Winslow winsSimulation 22: D+6.1 — Winslow winsSimulation 23: D+6.4 — Winslow winsSimulation 24: D+6.7 — Winslow winsSimulation 25: D+7 — Winslow winsSimulation 26: D+7.3 — Winslow winsSimulation 27: D+7.5 — Winslow winsSimulation 28: D+7.8 — Winslow winsSimulation 29: D+8.1 — Winslow winsSimulation 30: D+8.4 — Winslow winsSimulation 31: D+8.6 — Winslow winsSimulation 32: D+8.9 — Winslow winsSimulation 33: D+9.1 — Winslow winsSimulation 34: D+9.4 — Winslow winsSimulation 35: D+9.6 — Winslow winsSimulation 36: D+9.9 — Winslow winsSimulation 37: D+10.1 — Winslow winsSimulation 38: D+10.3 — Winslow winsSimulation 39: D+10.6 — Winslow winsSimulation 40: D+10.8 — Winslow winsSimulation 41: D+11 — Winslow winsSimulation 42: D+11.3 — Winslow winsSimulation 43: D+11.5 — Winslow winsSimulation 44: D+11.7 — Winslow winsSimulation 45: D+12 — Winslow winsSimulation 46: D+12.2 — Winslow winsSimulation 47: D+12.4 — Winslow winsSimulation 48: D+12.6 — Winslow winsSimulation 49: D+12.9 — Winslow winsSimulation 50: D+13.1 — Winslow winsSimulation 51: D+13.3 — Winslow winsSimulation 52: D+13.5 — Winslow winsSimulation 53: D+13.8 — Winslow winsSimulation 54: D+14 — Winslow winsSimulation 55: D+14.2 — Winslow winsSimulation 56: D+14.4 — Winslow winsSimulation 57: D+14.7 — Winslow winsSimulation 58: D+14.9 — Winslow winsSimulation 59: D+15.1 — Winslow winsSimulation 60: D+15.4 — Winslow winsSimulation 61: D+15.6 — Winslow winsSimulation 62: D+15.8 — Winslow winsSimulation 63: D+16.1 — Winslow winsSimulation 64: D+16.3 — Winslow winsSimulation 65: D+16.5 — Winslow winsSimulation 66: D+16.8 — Winslow winsSimulation 67: D+17 — Winslow winsSimulation 68: D+17.3 — Winslow winsSimulation 69: D+17.5 — Winslow winsSimulation 70: D+17.8 — Winslow winsSimulation 71: D+18 — Winslow winsSimulation 72: D+18.3 — Winslow winsSimulation 73: D+18.6 — Winslow winsSimulation 74: D+18.9 — Winslow winsSimulation 75: D+19.1 — Winslow winsSimulation 76: D+19.4 — Winslow winsSimulation 77: D+19.7 — Winslow winsSimulation 78: D+20 — Winslow winsSimulation 79: D+20.3 — Winslow winsSimulation 80: D+20.6 — Winslow winsSimulation 81: D+20.9 — Winslow winsSimulation 82: D+21.3 — Winslow winsSimulation 83: D+21.6 — Winslow winsSimulation 84: D+22 — Winslow winsSimulation 85: D+22.3 — Winslow winsSimulation 86: D+22.7 — Winslow winsSimulation 87: D+23.1 — Winslow winsSimulation 88: D+23.6 — Winslow winsSimulation 89: D+24 — Winslow winsSimulation 90: D+24.5 — Winslow winsSimulation 91: D+25 — Winslow winsSimulation 92: D+25.5 — Winslow winsSimulation 93: D+26.2 — Winslow winsSimulation 94: D+26.8 — Winslow winsSimulation 95: D+27.6 — Winslow winsSimulation 96: D+28.5 — Winslow winsSimulation 97: D+29.5 — Winslow winsSimulation 98: D+30.8 — Winslow winsSimulation 99: D+32.7 — Winslow winsSimulation 100: D+36.4 — Winslow winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40
Winslow wins 93 of 100Norwood wins 7

The forecast over time

One point a day
WinslowNorwood
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Winslow 93%Norwood 7%
Show the forecast as a table
DateWinslowNorwoodMargin
Sep 189%11%D+14.3
Sep 2289%11%D+14
Oct 1390%10%D+13.3
Oct 3093%7%D+13.2

The ratings

CNN
Likely DD+14.7

Likely D. Winslow leads by about 15 in Penn A's 4th.

FOX News
Likely DD+10.6

Likely D. Penn A's 4th voters care about prices, not pundits.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Penn A 4thD+8100%D+13.2

The candidates

Quentin WinslowDemocratic · Incumbent
51%approve+0.5 up this week

Has represented Penn A's 4th District in the House since October 2026. One of Penn A's first 17 members of the House, elected in the admission vote and sworn in on October 2, 2026, the day Penn A joined the Union. Known at home for the commuter line; in Washington for child care. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Jerome Norwood.

  • The commuter line
  • Child care
Jerome NorwoodRepublican · Candidate for Penn A's 4th District
43%favorable+0.5 up this week

The Republican nominee for Penn A's 4th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Quentin Winslow.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.