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U.S. Representative for Penn A's 6th District
U.S. Representative for Penn A's 6th District · November 3, 2026Likely D

Grabowski is favored to win another term

Jerome GrabowskiDemocratic · Incumbent
82%chance of winning
Carlos MirabalRepublican · Challenger
18%chance of winning
Grabowski 53.1%Projected vote · D+8.2 ± 9.0Mirabal 44.9%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+15 — Mirabal winsSimulation 2: R+11.3 — Mirabal winsSimulation 3: R+9.4 — Mirabal winsSimulation 4: R+8.1 — Mirabal winsSimulation 5: R+7.1 — Mirabal winsSimulation 6: R+6.2 — Mirabal winsSimulation 7: R+5.4 — Mirabal winsSimulation 8: R+4.8 — Mirabal winsSimulation 9: R+4.1 — Mirabal winsSimulation 10: R+3.6 — Mirabal winsSimulation 11: R+3.1 — Mirabal winsSimulation 12: R+2.6 — Mirabal winsSimulation 13: R+2.2 — Mirabal winsSimulation 14: R+1.7 — Mirabal winsSimulation 15: R+1.3 — Mirabal winsSimulation 16: R+0.9 — Mirabal winsSimulation 17: R+0.6 — Mirabal winsSimulation 18: R+0.2 — Mirabal winsSimulation 19: D+0.1 — Grabowski winsSimulation 20: D+0.5 — Grabowski winsSimulation 21: D+0.8 — Grabowski winsSimulation 22: D+1.1 — Grabowski winsSimulation 23: D+1.4 — Grabowski winsSimulation 24: D+1.7 — Grabowski winsSimulation 25: D+2 — Grabowski winsSimulation 26: D+2.3 — Grabowski winsSimulation 27: D+2.5 — Grabowski winsSimulation 28: D+2.8 — Grabowski winsSimulation 29: D+3.1 — Grabowski winsSimulation 30: D+3.4 — Grabowski winsSimulation 31: D+3.6 — Grabowski winsSimulation 32: D+3.9 — Grabowski winsSimulation 33: D+4.1 — Grabowski winsSimulation 34: D+4.4 — Grabowski winsSimulation 35: D+4.6 — Grabowski winsSimulation 36: D+4.9 — Grabowski winsSimulation 37: D+5.1 — Grabowski winsSimulation 38: D+5.3 — Grabowski winsSimulation 39: D+5.6 — Grabowski winsSimulation 40: D+5.8 — Grabowski winsSimulation 41: D+6 — Grabowski winsSimulation 42: D+6.3 — Grabowski winsSimulation 43: D+6.5 — Grabowski winsSimulation 44: D+6.7 — Grabowski winsSimulation 45: D+7 — Grabowski winsSimulation 46: D+7.2 — Grabowski winsSimulation 47: D+7.4 — Grabowski winsSimulation 48: D+7.6 — Grabowski winsSimulation 49: D+7.9 — Grabowski winsSimulation 50: D+8.1 — Grabowski winsSimulation 51: D+8.3 — Grabowski winsSimulation 52: D+8.5 — Grabowski winsSimulation 53: D+8.8 — Grabowski winsSimulation 54: D+9 — Grabowski winsSimulation 55: D+9.2 — Grabowski winsSimulation 56: D+9.4 — Grabowski winsSimulation 57: D+9.7 — Grabowski winsSimulation 58: D+9.9 — Grabowski winsSimulation 59: D+10.1 — Grabowski winsSimulation 60: D+10.4 — Grabowski winsSimulation 61: D+10.6 — Grabowski winsSimulation 62: D+10.8 — Grabowski winsSimulation 63: D+11.1 — Grabowski winsSimulation 64: D+11.3 — Grabowski winsSimulation 65: D+11.5 — Grabowski winsSimulation 66: D+11.8 — Grabowski winsSimulation 67: D+12 — Grabowski winsSimulation 68: D+12.3 — Grabowski winsSimulation 69: D+12.5 — Grabowski winsSimulation 70: D+12.8 — Grabowski winsSimulation 71: D+13 — Grabowski winsSimulation 72: D+13.3 — Grabowski winsSimulation 73: D+13.6 — Grabowski winsSimulation 74: D+13.9 — Grabowski winsSimulation 75: D+14.1 — Grabowski winsSimulation 76: D+14.4 — Grabowski winsSimulation 77: D+14.7 — Grabowski winsSimulation 78: D+15 — Grabowski winsSimulation 79: D+15.3 — Grabowski winsSimulation 80: D+15.6 — Grabowski winsSimulation 81: D+15.9 — Grabowski winsSimulation 82: D+16.3 — Grabowski winsSimulation 83: D+16.6 — Grabowski winsSimulation 84: D+17 — Grabowski winsSimulation 85: D+17.3 — Grabowski winsSimulation 86: D+17.7 — Grabowski winsSimulation 87: D+18.1 — Grabowski winsSimulation 88: D+18.6 — Grabowski winsSimulation 89: D+19 — Grabowski winsSimulation 90: D+19.5 — Grabowski winsSimulation 91: D+20 — Grabowski winsSimulation 92: D+20.5 — Grabowski winsSimulation 93: D+21.2 — Grabowski winsSimulation 94: D+21.8 — Grabowski winsSimulation 95: D+22.6 — Grabowski winsSimulation 96: D+23.5 — Grabowski winsSimulation 97: D+24.5 — Grabowski winsSimulation 98: D+25.8 — Grabowski winsSimulation 99: D+27.7 — Grabowski winsSimulation 100: D+31.4 — Grabowski winsR+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40
Grabowski wins 82 of 100Mirabal wins 18

The forecast over time

One point a day
GrabowskiMirabal
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayGrabowski 82%Mirabal 18%
Show the forecast as a table
DateGrabowskiMirabalMargin
Sep 177%23%D+8.6
Sep 2278%22%D+8.8
Oct 1378%22%D+7.8
Oct 3082%18%D+8.2

The ratings

CNN
Likely DD+9.5

Penn A's 6th: Likely D. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Lean DD+5.9

Lean D in Penn A's 6th. Mirabal has the momentum on the economy.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Penn A 6thD+5100%D+8.2

The candidates

Jerome GrabowskiDemocratic · Incumbent
45%approve−1.5 down this week

Has represented Penn A's 6th District in the House since October 2026. One of Penn A's first 17 members of the House, elected in the admission vote and sworn in on October 2, 2026, the day Penn A joined the Union. Known at home for transit money for the district; in Washington for public safety grants. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Carlos Mirabal.

  • Transit money for the district
  • Public safety grants
Carlos MirabalRepublican · Candidate for Penn A's 6th District
47%favorable−0.7 down this week

The Republican nominee for Penn A's 6th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Jerome Grabowski.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.