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U.S. Representative for Penn A's 12th District
U.S. Representative for Penn A's 12th District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Forsythe is all but certain to win another term

Alicia ForsytheDemocratic · Incumbent
98%chance of winning
Janelle SalcedoRepublican · Challenger
2%chance of winning
Forsythe 58.8%Projected vote · D+19.7 ± 9.0Salcedo 39.2%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+3.5 — Salcedo winsSimulation 2: D+0.2 — Forsythe winsSimulation 3: D+2.1 — Forsythe winsSimulation 4: D+3.4 — Forsythe winsSimulation 5: D+4.4 — Forsythe winsSimulation 6: D+5.3 — Forsythe winsSimulation 7: D+6.1 — Forsythe winsSimulation 8: D+6.7 — Forsythe winsSimulation 9: D+7.4 — Forsythe winsSimulation 10: D+7.9 — Forsythe winsSimulation 11: D+8.4 — Forsythe winsSimulation 12: D+8.9 — Forsythe winsSimulation 13: D+9.3 — Forsythe winsSimulation 14: D+9.8 — Forsythe winsSimulation 15: D+10.2 — Forsythe winsSimulation 16: D+10.6 — Forsythe winsSimulation 17: D+10.9 — Forsythe winsSimulation 18: D+11.3 — Forsythe winsSimulation 19: D+11.6 — Forsythe winsSimulation 20: D+12 — Forsythe winsSimulation 21: D+12.3 — Forsythe winsSimulation 22: D+12.6 — Forsythe winsSimulation 23: D+12.9 — Forsythe winsSimulation 24: D+13.2 — Forsythe winsSimulation 25: D+13.5 — Forsythe winsSimulation 26: D+13.8 — Forsythe winsSimulation 27: D+14 — Forsythe winsSimulation 28: D+14.3 — Forsythe winsSimulation 29: D+14.6 — Forsythe winsSimulation 30: D+14.9 — Forsythe winsSimulation 31: D+15.1 — Forsythe winsSimulation 32: D+15.4 — Forsythe winsSimulation 33: D+15.6 — Forsythe winsSimulation 34: D+15.9 — Forsythe winsSimulation 35: D+16.1 — Forsythe winsSimulation 36: D+16.4 — Forsythe winsSimulation 37: D+16.6 — Forsythe winsSimulation 38: D+16.8 — Forsythe winsSimulation 39: D+17.1 — Forsythe winsSimulation 40: D+17.3 — Forsythe winsSimulation 41: D+17.5 — Forsythe winsSimulation 42: D+17.8 — Forsythe winsSimulation 43: D+18 — Forsythe winsSimulation 44: D+18.2 — Forsythe winsSimulation 45: D+18.5 — Forsythe winsSimulation 46: D+18.7 — Forsythe winsSimulation 47: D+18.9 — Forsythe winsSimulation 48: D+19.1 — Forsythe winsSimulation 49: D+19.4 — Forsythe winsSimulation 50: D+19.6 — Forsythe winsSimulation 51: D+19.8 — Forsythe winsSimulation 52: D+20 — Forsythe winsSimulation 53: D+20.3 — Forsythe winsSimulation 54: D+20.5 — Forsythe winsSimulation 55: D+20.7 — Forsythe winsSimulation 56: D+20.9 — Forsythe winsSimulation 57: D+21.2 — Forsythe winsSimulation 58: D+21.4 — Forsythe winsSimulation 59: D+21.6 — Forsythe winsSimulation 60: D+21.9 — Forsythe winsSimulation 61: D+22.1 — Forsythe winsSimulation 62: D+22.3 — Forsythe winsSimulation 63: D+22.6 — Forsythe winsSimulation 64: D+22.8 — Forsythe winsSimulation 65: D+23 — Forsythe winsSimulation 66: D+23.3 — Forsythe winsSimulation 67: D+23.5 — Forsythe winsSimulation 68: D+23.8 — Forsythe winsSimulation 69: D+24 — Forsythe winsSimulation 70: D+24.3 — Forsythe winsSimulation 71: D+24.5 — Forsythe winsSimulation 72: D+24.8 — Forsythe winsSimulation 73: D+25.1 — Forsythe winsSimulation 74: D+25.4 — Forsythe winsSimulation 75: D+25.6 — Forsythe winsSimulation 76: D+25.9 — Forsythe winsSimulation 77: D+26.2 — Forsythe winsSimulation 78: D+26.5 — Forsythe winsSimulation 79: D+26.8 — Forsythe winsSimulation 80: D+27.1 — Forsythe winsSimulation 81: D+27.4 — Forsythe winsSimulation 82: D+27.8 — Forsythe winsSimulation 83: D+28.1 — Forsythe winsSimulation 84: D+28.5 — Forsythe winsSimulation 85: D+28.8 — Forsythe winsSimulation 86: D+29.2 — Forsythe winsSimulation 87: D+29.6 — Forsythe winsSimulation 88: D+30.1 — Forsythe winsSimulation 89: D+30.5 — Forsythe winsSimulation 90: D+31 — Forsythe winsSimulation 91: D+31.5 — Forsythe winsSimulation 92: D+32 — Forsythe winsSimulation 93: D+32.7 — Forsythe winsSimulation 94: D+33.3 — Forsythe winsSimulation 95: D+34.1 — Forsythe winsSimulation 96: D+35 — Forsythe winsSimulation 97: D+36 — Forsythe winsSimulation 98: D+37.3 — Forsythe winsSimulation 99: D+39.2 — Forsythe winsSimulation 100: D+42.9 — Forsythe winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50
Forsythe wins 99 of 100Salcedo wins 1

The forecast over time

One point a day
ForsytheSalcedo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Forsythe 98%Salcedo 2%
Show the forecast as a table
DateForsytheSalcedoMargin
Sep 196%4%D+20.1
Sep 2296%4%D+20.2
Oct 1397%3%D+19.9
Oct 3098%2%D+19.7

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+21.5

Penn A's 12th: Safe D. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Safe DD+17.7

Safe D in Penn A's 12th. Salcedo has the momentum on the economy.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Penn A 12thD+14100%D+19.7

The candidates

Alicia ForsytheDemocratic · Incumbent
50%approve0.0 unchanged this week

Has represented Penn A's 12th District in the House since October 2026. One of Penn A's first 17 members of the House, elected in the admission vote and sworn in on October 2, 2026, the day Penn A joined the Union. Known at home for flood insurance; in Washington for lower drug prices. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Janelle Salcedo.

  • Flood insurance
  • Lower drug prices
Janelle SalcedoRepublican · Candidate for Penn A's 12th District
40%favorable−0.3 down this week

The Republican nominee for Penn A's 12th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Alicia Forsythe.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.