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U.S. Representative for Penn A's 16th District
U.S. Representative for Penn A's 16th District · November 3, 2026Likely R

Vandermeer is clearly favored to win another term

Priya SantoroDemocratic · Challenger
8%chance of winning
Andrea VandermeerRepublican · Incumbent
92%chance of winning
Santoro 42.7%Projected vote · R+12.5 ± 9.0Vandermeer 55.3%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+35.7 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 2: R+32 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 3: R+30.1 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 4: R+28.8 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 5: R+27.8 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 6: R+26.9 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 7: R+26.1 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 8: R+25.5 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 9: R+24.8 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 10: R+24.3 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 11: R+23.8 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 12: R+23.3 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 13: R+22.9 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 14: R+22.4 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 15: R+22 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 16: R+21.6 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 17: R+21.3 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 18: R+20.9 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 19: R+20.6 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 20: R+20.2 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 21: R+19.9 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 22: R+19.6 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 23: R+19.3 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 24: R+19 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 25: R+18.7 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 26: R+18.4 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 27: R+18.2 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 28: R+17.9 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 29: R+17.6 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 30: R+17.3 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 31: R+17.1 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 32: R+16.8 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 33: R+16.6 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 34: R+16.3 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 35: R+16.1 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 36: R+15.8 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 37: R+15.6 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 38: R+15.4 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 39: R+15.1 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 40: R+14.9 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 41: R+14.7 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 42: R+14.4 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 43: R+14.2 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 44: R+14 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 45: R+13.7 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 46: R+13.5 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 47: R+13.3 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 48: R+13.1 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 49: R+12.8 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 50: R+12.6 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 51: R+12.4 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 52: R+12.2 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 53: R+11.9 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 54: R+11.7 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 55: R+11.5 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 56: R+11.3 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 57: R+11 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 58: R+10.8 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 59: R+10.6 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 60: R+10.3 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 61: R+10.1 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 62: R+9.9 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 63: R+9.6 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 64: R+9.4 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 65: R+9.2 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 66: R+8.9 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 67: R+8.7 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 68: R+8.4 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 69: R+8.2 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 70: R+7.9 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 71: R+7.7 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 72: R+7.4 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 73: R+7.1 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 74: R+6.8 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 75: R+6.6 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 76: R+6.3 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 77: R+6 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 78: R+5.7 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 79: R+5.4 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 80: R+5.1 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 81: R+4.8 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 82: R+4.4 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 83: R+4.1 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 84: R+3.7 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 85: R+3.4 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 86: R+3 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 87: R+2.6 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 88: R+2.1 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 89: R+1.7 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 90: R+1.2 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 91: R+0.7 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 92: R+0.2 — Vandermeer winsSimulation 93: D+0.5 — Santoro winsSimulation 94: D+1.1 — Santoro winsSimulation 95: D+1.9 — Santoro winsSimulation 96: D+2.8 — Santoro winsSimulation 97: D+3.8 — Santoro winsSimulation 98: D+5.1 — Santoro winsSimulation 99: D+7 — Santoro winsSimulation 100: D+10.7 — Santoro winsR+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
Santoro wins 8 of 100Vandermeer wins 92

The forecast over time

One point a day
SantoroVandermeer
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Santoro 8%Vandermeer 92%
Show the forecast as a table
DateSantoroVandermeerMargin
Sep 116%84%R+12
Sep 2214%86%R+12.2
Oct 1311%89%R+12.8
Oct 308%92%R+12.5

The ratings

CNN
Likely RR+10.9

Likely R. Vandermeer leads by about 11 in Penn A's 16th.

FOX News
Safe RR+16

Safe R in Penn A's 16th. Vandermeer has the momentum on the economy.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Penn A 16thR+11100%R+12.5

The candidates

Priya SantoroDemocratic · Candidate for Penn A's 16th District
44%favorable+0.6 up this week

The Democratic nominee for Penn A's 16th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Andrea Vandermeer.

Andrea VandermeerRepublican · Incumbent
51%approve+0.6 up this week

Has represented Penn A's 16th District in the House since October 2026. One of Penn A's first 17 members of the House, elected in the admission vote and sworn in on October 2, 2026, the day Penn A joined the Union. Known at home for the local port; in Washington for the hospital merger. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Priya Santoro.

  • The local port
  • The hospital merger

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.