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U.S. Representative for New A's 7th District · New S
U.S. Representative for New A's 7th District · November 3, 2026Safe R

Marchand is all but certain to win another term

Tobias KapoorDemocratic · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Reggie MarchandRepublican · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Kapoor 35.3%Projected vote · R+27.4 ± 9.0Marchand 62.7%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+50.6 — Marchand winsSimulation 2: R+46.9 — Marchand winsSimulation 3: R+45 — Marchand winsSimulation 4: R+43.7 — Marchand winsSimulation 5: R+42.7 — Marchand winsSimulation 6: R+41.8 — Marchand winsSimulation 7: R+41 — Marchand winsSimulation 8: R+40.4 — Marchand winsSimulation 9: R+39.7 — Marchand winsSimulation 10: R+39.2 — Marchand winsSimulation 11: R+38.7 — Marchand winsSimulation 12: R+38.2 — Marchand winsSimulation 13: R+37.8 — Marchand winsSimulation 14: R+37.3 — Marchand winsSimulation 15: R+36.9 — Marchand winsSimulation 16: R+36.5 — Marchand winsSimulation 17: R+36.2 — Marchand winsSimulation 18: R+35.8 — Marchand winsSimulation 19: R+35.5 — Marchand winsSimulation 20: R+35.1 — Marchand winsSimulation 21: R+34.8 — Marchand winsSimulation 22: R+34.5 — Marchand winsSimulation 23: R+34.2 — Marchand winsSimulation 24: R+33.9 — Marchand winsSimulation 25: R+33.6 — Marchand winsSimulation 26: R+33.3 — Marchand winsSimulation 27: R+33.1 — Marchand winsSimulation 28: R+32.8 — Marchand winsSimulation 29: R+32.5 — Marchand winsSimulation 30: R+32.2 — Marchand winsSimulation 31: R+32 — Marchand winsSimulation 32: R+31.7 — Marchand winsSimulation 33: R+31.5 — Marchand winsSimulation 34: R+31.2 — Marchand winsSimulation 35: R+31 — Marchand winsSimulation 36: R+30.7 — Marchand winsSimulation 37: R+30.5 — Marchand winsSimulation 38: R+30.3 — Marchand winsSimulation 39: R+30 — Marchand winsSimulation 40: R+29.8 — Marchand winsSimulation 41: R+29.6 — Marchand winsSimulation 42: R+29.3 — Marchand winsSimulation 43: R+29.1 — Marchand winsSimulation 44: R+28.9 — Marchand winsSimulation 45: R+28.6 — Marchand winsSimulation 46: R+28.4 — Marchand winsSimulation 47: R+28.2 — Marchand winsSimulation 48: R+28 — Marchand winsSimulation 49: R+27.7 — Marchand winsSimulation 50: R+27.5 — Marchand winsSimulation 51: R+27.3 — Marchand winsSimulation 52: R+27.1 — Marchand winsSimulation 53: R+26.8 — Marchand winsSimulation 54: R+26.6 — Marchand winsSimulation 55: R+26.4 — Marchand winsSimulation 56: R+26.2 — Marchand winsSimulation 57: R+25.9 — Marchand winsSimulation 58: R+25.7 — Marchand winsSimulation 59: R+25.5 — Marchand winsSimulation 60: R+25.2 — Marchand winsSimulation 61: R+25 — Marchand winsSimulation 62: R+24.8 — Marchand winsSimulation 63: R+24.5 — Marchand winsSimulation 64: R+24.3 — Marchand winsSimulation 65: R+24.1 — Marchand winsSimulation 66: R+23.8 — Marchand winsSimulation 67: R+23.6 — Marchand winsSimulation 68: R+23.3 — Marchand winsSimulation 69: R+23.1 — Marchand winsSimulation 70: R+22.8 — Marchand winsSimulation 71: R+22.6 — Marchand winsSimulation 72: R+22.3 — Marchand winsSimulation 73: R+22 — Marchand winsSimulation 74: R+21.7 — Marchand winsSimulation 75: R+21.5 — Marchand winsSimulation 76: R+21.2 — Marchand winsSimulation 77: R+20.9 — Marchand winsSimulation 78: R+20.6 — Marchand winsSimulation 79: R+20.3 — Marchand winsSimulation 80: R+20 — Marchand winsSimulation 81: R+19.7 — Marchand winsSimulation 82: R+19.3 — Marchand winsSimulation 83: R+19 — Marchand winsSimulation 84: R+18.6 — Marchand winsSimulation 85: R+18.3 — Marchand winsSimulation 86: R+17.9 — Marchand winsSimulation 87: R+17.5 — Marchand winsSimulation 88: R+17 — Marchand winsSimulation 89: R+16.6 — Marchand winsSimulation 90: R+16.1 — Marchand winsSimulation 91: R+15.6 — Marchand winsSimulation 92: R+15.1 — Marchand winsSimulation 93: R+14.4 — Marchand winsSimulation 94: R+13.8 — Marchand winsSimulation 95: R+13 — Marchand winsSimulation 96: R+12.1 — Marchand winsSimulation 97: R+11.1 — Marchand winsSimulation 98: R+9.8 — Marchand winsSimulation 99: R+7.9 — Marchand winsSimulation 100: R+4.2 — Marchand winsR+60R+50R+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10
Kapoor wins 0 of 100Marchand wins 100

The forecast over time

One point a day
KapoorMarchand
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Kapoor <1%Marchand >99%
  1. Sep 14New A 1 poll, borough by borough: Hochul leads by 11 — Man A and The BX carry her, Long Island and New S do notR+0.3
Show the forecast as a table
DateKapoorMarchandMargin
Sep 11%99%R+26.9
Sep 221%99%R+26.7
Oct 13<1%>99%R+27.7
Oct 30<1%>99%R+27.4

The ratings

PIX 11 Long Island
Safe RR+27.3

Safe R in New A's 7th. Marchand has the edge on our board.

New A 1
Safe RR+28.1

New A's 7th: Safe R. Marchand leads by about 28.

CNN
Safe RR+26

Safe R in New A's 7th; Marchand is favored by our team.

FOX News
Safe RR+29.6

Safe R in New A's 7th. Marchand has the momentum on the economy.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
New SR+26100%R+27.4

The candidates

Tobias KapoorDemocratic · Candidate for New A's 7th District
41%favorable−1.2 down this week

The Democratic nominee for New A's 7th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Reggie Marchand.

Reggie MarchandRepublican · Incumbent
46%approve+1.6 up this week

Has represented New A's 7th District (New S) in the House since January 2019. Known at home for transit money for the district; in Washington for public safety grants. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Tobias Kapoor.

  • Transit money for the district
  • Public safety grants

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 9:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.