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U.S. Representative for Penn A's 5th District
U.S. Representative for Penn A's 5th District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Lombardi is clearly favored to win another term

Farah LombardiDemocratic · Incumbent
97%chance of winning
Andrea HathawayRepublican · Challenger
3%chance of winning
Lombardi 57.5%Projected vote · D+16.9 ± 9.0Hathaway 40.5%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+6.3 — Hathaway winsSimulation 2: R+2.6 — Hathaway winsSimulation 3: R+0.7 — Hathaway winsSimulation 4: D+0.6 — Lombardi winsSimulation 5: D+1.6 — Lombardi winsSimulation 6: D+2.5 — Lombardi winsSimulation 7: D+3.3 — Lombardi winsSimulation 8: D+3.9 — Lombardi winsSimulation 9: D+4.6 — Lombardi winsSimulation 10: D+5.1 — Lombardi winsSimulation 11: D+5.6 — Lombardi winsSimulation 12: D+6.1 — Lombardi winsSimulation 13: D+6.5 — Lombardi winsSimulation 14: D+7 — Lombardi winsSimulation 15: D+7.4 — Lombardi winsSimulation 16: D+7.8 — Lombardi winsSimulation 17: D+8.1 — Lombardi winsSimulation 18: D+8.5 — Lombardi winsSimulation 19: D+8.8 — Lombardi winsSimulation 20: D+9.2 — Lombardi winsSimulation 21: D+9.5 — Lombardi winsSimulation 22: D+9.8 — Lombardi winsSimulation 23: D+10.1 — Lombardi winsSimulation 24: D+10.4 — Lombardi winsSimulation 25: D+10.7 — Lombardi winsSimulation 26: D+11 — Lombardi winsSimulation 27: D+11.2 — Lombardi winsSimulation 28: D+11.5 — Lombardi winsSimulation 29: D+11.8 — Lombardi winsSimulation 30: D+12.1 — Lombardi winsSimulation 31: D+12.3 — Lombardi winsSimulation 32: D+12.6 — Lombardi winsSimulation 33: D+12.8 — Lombardi winsSimulation 34: D+13.1 — Lombardi winsSimulation 35: D+13.3 — Lombardi winsSimulation 36: D+13.6 — Lombardi winsSimulation 37: D+13.8 — Lombardi winsSimulation 38: D+14 — Lombardi winsSimulation 39: D+14.3 — Lombardi winsSimulation 40: D+14.5 — Lombardi winsSimulation 41: D+14.7 — Lombardi winsSimulation 42: D+15 — Lombardi winsSimulation 43: D+15.2 — Lombardi winsSimulation 44: D+15.4 — Lombardi winsSimulation 45: D+15.7 — Lombardi winsSimulation 46: D+15.9 — Lombardi winsSimulation 47: D+16.1 — Lombardi winsSimulation 48: D+16.3 — Lombardi winsSimulation 49: D+16.6 — Lombardi winsSimulation 50: D+16.8 — Lombardi winsSimulation 51: D+17 — Lombardi winsSimulation 52: D+17.2 — Lombardi winsSimulation 53: D+17.5 — Lombardi winsSimulation 54: D+17.7 — Lombardi winsSimulation 55: D+17.9 — Lombardi winsSimulation 56: D+18.1 — Lombardi winsSimulation 57: D+18.4 — Lombardi winsSimulation 58: D+18.6 — Lombardi winsSimulation 59: D+18.8 — Lombardi winsSimulation 60: D+19.1 — Lombardi winsSimulation 61: D+19.3 — Lombardi winsSimulation 62: D+19.5 — Lombardi winsSimulation 63: D+19.8 — Lombardi winsSimulation 64: D+20 — Lombardi winsSimulation 65: D+20.2 — Lombardi winsSimulation 66: D+20.5 — Lombardi winsSimulation 67: D+20.7 — Lombardi winsSimulation 68: D+21 — Lombardi winsSimulation 69: D+21.2 — Lombardi winsSimulation 70: D+21.5 — Lombardi winsSimulation 71: D+21.7 — Lombardi winsSimulation 72: D+22 — Lombardi winsSimulation 73: D+22.3 — Lombardi winsSimulation 74: D+22.6 — Lombardi winsSimulation 75: D+22.8 — Lombardi winsSimulation 76: D+23.1 — Lombardi winsSimulation 77: D+23.4 — Lombardi winsSimulation 78: D+23.7 — Lombardi winsSimulation 79: D+24 — Lombardi winsSimulation 80: D+24.3 — Lombardi winsSimulation 81: D+24.6 — Lombardi winsSimulation 82: D+25 — Lombardi winsSimulation 83: D+25.3 — Lombardi winsSimulation 84: D+25.7 — Lombardi winsSimulation 85: D+26 — Lombardi winsSimulation 86: D+26.4 — Lombardi winsSimulation 87: D+26.8 — Lombardi winsSimulation 88: D+27.3 — Lombardi winsSimulation 89: D+27.7 — Lombardi winsSimulation 90: D+28.2 — Lombardi winsSimulation 91: D+28.7 — Lombardi winsSimulation 92: D+29.2 — Lombardi winsSimulation 93: D+29.9 — Lombardi winsSimulation 94: D+30.5 — Lombardi winsSimulation 95: D+31.3 — Lombardi winsSimulation 96: D+32.2 — Lombardi winsSimulation 97: D+33.2 — Lombardi winsSimulation 98: D+34.5 — Lombardi winsSimulation 99: D+36.4 — Lombardi winsSimulation 100: D+40.1 — Lombardi winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50
Lombardi wins 97 of 100Hathaway wins 3

The forecast over time

One point a day
LombardiHathaway
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Lombardi 97%Hathaway 3%
Show the forecast as a table
DateLombardiHathawayMargin
Sep 193%7%D+17.5
Sep 2294%6%D+17.4
Oct 1395%5%D+17
Oct 3097%3%D+16.9

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+19

Safe D in Penn A's 5th; Lombardi is favored by our team.

FOX News
Safe DD+15.4

Safe D. Penn A's 5th voters care about prices, not pundits.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Penn A 5thD+12100%D+16.9

The candidates

Farah LombardiDemocratic · Incumbent
48%approve−1.4 down this week

Has represented Penn A's 5th District in the House since October 2026. One of Penn A's first 17 members of the House, elected in the admission vote and sworn in on October 2, 2026, the day Penn A joined the Union. Known at home for broadband; in Washington for the highway rebuild. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Andrea Hathaway.

  • Broadband
  • The highway rebuild
Andrea HathawayRepublican · Candidate for Penn A's 5th District
42%favorable−1.0 down this week

The Republican nominee for Penn A's 5th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Farah Lombardi.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.