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U.S. Representative for V Beach's 6th District
U.S. Representative for V Beach's 6th District · November 3, 2026Safe R

Navarette is clearly favored to win another term

Kara KeohaneDemocratic · Challenger
3%chance of winning
Laura NavaretteRepublican · Incumbent
97%chance of winning
Keohane 40.6%Projected vote · R+16.8 ± 9.0Navarette 57.4%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+40 — Navarette winsSimulation 2: R+36.3 — Navarette winsSimulation 3: R+34.4 — Navarette winsSimulation 4: R+33.1 — Navarette winsSimulation 5: R+32.1 — Navarette winsSimulation 6: R+31.2 — Navarette winsSimulation 7: R+30.4 — Navarette winsSimulation 8: R+29.8 — Navarette winsSimulation 9: R+29.1 — Navarette winsSimulation 10: R+28.6 — Navarette winsSimulation 11: R+28.1 — Navarette winsSimulation 12: R+27.6 — Navarette winsSimulation 13: R+27.2 — Navarette winsSimulation 14: R+26.7 — Navarette winsSimulation 15: R+26.3 — Navarette winsSimulation 16: R+25.9 — Navarette winsSimulation 17: R+25.6 — Navarette winsSimulation 18: R+25.2 — Navarette winsSimulation 19: R+24.9 — Navarette winsSimulation 20: R+24.5 — Navarette winsSimulation 21: R+24.2 — Navarette winsSimulation 22: R+23.9 — Navarette winsSimulation 23: R+23.6 — Navarette winsSimulation 24: R+23.3 — Navarette winsSimulation 25: R+23 — Navarette winsSimulation 26: R+22.7 — Navarette winsSimulation 27: R+22.5 — Navarette winsSimulation 28: R+22.2 — Navarette winsSimulation 29: R+21.9 — Navarette winsSimulation 30: R+21.6 — Navarette winsSimulation 31: R+21.4 — Navarette winsSimulation 32: R+21.1 — Navarette winsSimulation 33: R+20.9 — Navarette winsSimulation 34: R+20.6 — Navarette winsSimulation 35: R+20.4 — Navarette winsSimulation 36: R+20.1 — Navarette winsSimulation 37: R+19.9 — Navarette winsSimulation 38: R+19.7 — Navarette winsSimulation 39: R+19.4 — Navarette winsSimulation 40: R+19.2 — Navarette winsSimulation 41: R+19 — Navarette winsSimulation 42: R+18.7 — Navarette winsSimulation 43: R+18.5 — Navarette winsSimulation 44: R+18.3 — Navarette winsSimulation 45: R+18 — Navarette winsSimulation 46: R+17.8 — Navarette winsSimulation 47: R+17.6 — Navarette winsSimulation 48: R+17.4 — Navarette winsSimulation 49: R+17.1 — Navarette winsSimulation 50: R+16.9 — Navarette winsSimulation 51: R+16.7 — Navarette winsSimulation 52: R+16.5 — Navarette winsSimulation 53: R+16.2 — Navarette winsSimulation 54: R+16 — Navarette winsSimulation 55: R+15.8 — Navarette winsSimulation 56: R+15.6 — Navarette winsSimulation 57: R+15.3 — Navarette winsSimulation 58: R+15.1 — Navarette winsSimulation 59: R+14.9 — Navarette winsSimulation 60: R+14.6 — Navarette winsSimulation 61: R+14.4 — Navarette winsSimulation 62: R+14.2 — Navarette winsSimulation 63: R+13.9 — Navarette winsSimulation 64: R+13.7 — Navarette winsSimulation 65: R+13.5 — Navarette winsSimulation 66: R+13.2 — Navarette winsSimulation 67: R+13 — Navarette winsSimulation 68: R+12.7 — Navarette winsSimulation 69: R+12.5 — Navarette winsSimulation 70: R+12.2 — Navarette winsSimulation 71: R+12 — Navarette winsSimulation 72: R+11.7 — Navarette winsSimulation 73: R+11.4 — Navarette winsSimulation 74: R+11.1 — Navarette winsSimulation 75: R+10.9 — Navarette winsSimulation 76: R+10.6 — Navarette winsSimulation 77: R+10.3 — Navarette winsSimulation 78: R+10 — Navarette winsSimulation 79: R+9.7 — Navarette winsSimulation 80: R+9.4 — Navarette winsSimulation 81: R+9.1 — Navarette winsSimulation 82: R+8.7 — Navarette winsSimulation 83: R+8.4 — Navarette winsSimulation 84: R+8 — Navarette winsSimulation 85: R+7.7 — Navarette winsSimulation 86: R+7.3 — Navarette winsSimulation 87: R+6.9 — Navarette winsSimulation 88: R+6.4 — Navarette winsSimulation 89: R+6 — Navarette winsSimulation 90: R+5.5 — Navarette winsSimulation 91: R+5 — Navarette winsSimulation 92: R+4.5 — Navarette winsSimulation 93: R+3.8 — Navarette winsSimulation 94: R+3.2 — Navarette winsSimulation 95: R+2.4 — Navarette winsSimulation 96: R+1.5 — Navarette winsSimulation 97: R+0.5 — Navarette winsSimulation 98: D+0.8 — Keohane winsSimulation 99: D+2.7 — Keohane winsSimulation 100: D+6.4 — Keohane winsR+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10
Keohane wins 3 of 100Navarette wins 97

The forecast over time

One point a day
KeohaneNavarette
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Keohane 3%Navarette 97%
Show the forecast as a table
DateKeohaneNavaretteMargin
Sep 19%91%R+16.1
Sep 228%92%R+15.9
Oct 135%95%R+17
Oct 303%97%R+16.8

The ratings

CNN
Safe RR+15.5

V Beach's 6th: Safe R. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Safe RR+19.4

V Beach's 6th: Safe R. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
V Beach 6thR+15100%R+16.8

The candidates

Kara KeohaneDemocratic · Candidate for V Beach's 6th District
43%favorable−1.0 down this week

The Democratic nominee for V Beach's 6th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Laura Navarette.

Laura NavaretteRepublican · Incumbent
50%approve0.0 unchanged this week

Has represented V Beach's 6th District in the House since January 2023. Known at home for flood insurance; in Washington for lower drug prices. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Kara Keohane.

  • Flood insurance
  • Lower drug prices

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.