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U.S. Representative for New J's 11th District
U.S. Representative for New J's 11th District · November 3, 2026Likely D

Varela is clearly favored to win another term

Benjamin VarelaDemocratic · Incumbent
93%chance of winning
Nathan DuarteRepublican · Challenger
7%chance of winning
Varela 55.6%Projected vote · D+13.1 ± 9.0Duarte 42.4%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+10.1 — Duarte winsSimulation 2: R+6.4 — Duarte winsSimulation 3: R+4.5 — Duarte winsSimulation 4: R+3.2 — Duarte winsSimulation 5: R+2.2 — Duarte winsSimulation 6: R+1.3 — Duarte winsSimulation 7: R+0.5 — Duarte winsSimulation 8: D+0.1 — Varela winsSimulation 9: D+0.8 — Varela winsSimulation 10: D+1.3 — Varela winsSimulation 11: D+1.8 — Varela winsSimulation 12: D+2.3 — Varela winsSimulation 13: D+2.7 — Varela winsSimulation 14: D+3.2 — Varela winsSimulation 15: D+3.6 — Varela winsSimulation 16: D+4 — Varela winsSimulation 17: D+4.3 — Varela winsSimulation 18: D+4.7 — Varela winsSimulation 19: D+5 — Varela winsSimulation 20: D+5.4 — Varela winsSimulation 21: D+5.7 — Varela winsSimulation 22: D+6 — Varela winsSimulation 23: D+6.3 — Varela winsSimulation 24: D+6.6 — Varela winsSimulation 25: D+6.9 — Varela winsSimulation 26: D+7.2 — Varela winsSimulation 27: D+7.4 — Varela winsSimulation 28: D+7.7 — Varela winsSimulation 29: D+8 — Varela winsSimulation 30: D+8.3 — Varela winsSimulation 31: D+8.5 — Varela winsSimulation 32: D+8.8 — Varela winsSimulation 33: D+9 — Varela winsSimulation 34: D+9.3 — Varela winsSimulation 35: D+9.5 — Varela winsSimulation 36: D+9.8 — Varela winsSimulation 37: D+10 — Varela winsSimulation 38: D+10.2 — Varela winsSimulation 39: D+10.5 — Varela winsSimulation 40: D+10.7 — Varela winsSimulation 41: D+10.9 — Varela winsSimulation 42: D+11.2 — Varela winsSimulation 43: D+11.4 — Varela winsSimulation 44: D+11.6 — Varela winsSimulation 45: D+11.9 — Varela winsSimulation 46: D+12.1 — Varela winsSimulation 47: D+12.3 — Varela winsSimulation 48: D+12.5 — Varela winsSimulation 49: D+12.8 — Varela winsSimulation 50: D+13 — Varela winsSimulation 51: D+13.2 — Varela winsSimulation 52: D+13.4 — Varela winsSimulation 53: D+13.7 — Varela winsSimulation 54: D+13.9 — Varela winsSimulation 55: D+14.1 — Varela winsSimulation 56: D+14.3 — Varela winsSimulation 57: D+14.6 — Varela winsSimulation 58: D+14.8 — Varela winsSimulation 59: D+15 — Varela winsSimulation 60: D+15.3 — Varela winsSimulation 61: D+15.5 — Varela winsSimulation 62: D+15.7 — Varela winsSimulation 63: D+16 — Varela winsSimulation 64: D+16.2 — Varela winsSimulation 65: D+16.4 — Varela winsSimulation 66: D+16.7 — Varela winsSimulation 67: D+16.9 — Varela winsSimulation 68: D+17.2 — Varela winsSimulation 69: D+17.4 — Varela winsSimulation 70: D+17.7 — Varela winsSimulation 71: D+17.9 — Varela winsSimulation 72: D+18.2 — Varela winsSimulation 73: D+18.5 — Varela winsSimulation 74: D+18.8 — Varela winsSimulation 75: D+19 — Varela winsSimulation 76: D+19.3 — Varela winsSimulation 77: D+19.6 — Varela winsSimulation 78: D+19.9 — Varela winsSimulation 79: D+20.2 — Varela winsSimulation 80: D+20.5 — Varela winsSimulation 81: D+20.8 — Varela winsSimulation 82: D+21.2 — Varela winsSimulation 83: D+21.5 — Varela winsSimulation 84: D+21.9 — Varela winsSimulation 85: D+22.2 — Varela winsSimulation 86: D+22.6 — Varela winsSimulation 87: D+23 — Varela winsSimulation 88: D+23.5 — Varela winsSimulation 89: D+23.9 — Varela winsSimulation 90: D+24.4 — Varela winsSimulation 91: D+24.9 — Varela winsSimulation 92: D+25.4 — Varela winsSimulation 93: D+26.1 — Varela winsSimulation 94: D+26.7 — Varela winsSimulation 95: D+27.5 — Varela winsSimulation 96: D+28.4 — Varela winsSimulation 97: D+29.4 — Varela winsSimulation 98: D+30.7 — Varela winsSimulation 99: D+32.6 — Varela winsSimulation 100: D+36.3 — Varela winsR+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40
Varela wins 93 of 100Duarte wins 7

The forecast over time

One point a day
VarelaDuarte
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Varela 93%Duarte 7%
Show the forecast as a table
DateVarelaDuarteMargin
Sep 188%12%D+13.9
Sep 2289%11%D+13.8
Oct 1389%11%D+12.8
Oct 3093%7%D+13.1

The ratings

CNN
Likely DD+14.7

Likely D. Varela leads by about 15 in New J's 11th.

FOX News
Likely DD+11.4

Likely D in New J's 11th. Duarte has the momentum on the economy.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
New J 11thD+9100%D+13.1

The candidates

Benjamin VarelaDemocratic · Incumbent
48%approve−0.7 down this week

Has represented New J's 11th District in the House since January 2021. Known at home for transit money for the district; in Washington for public safety grants. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Nathan Duarte.

  • Transit money for the district
  • Public safety grants
Nathan DuarteRepublican · Candidate for New J's 11th District
46%favorable+0.6 up this week

The Republican nominee for New J's 11th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Benjamin Varela.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.