U.S. Representative for North C's 4th District · November 3, 2026 Safe D
Valdivia is all but certain to win another term
Quentin Valdivia
>99% chance of winning
Tobias Ravensworth
<1% chance of winning
>99%
64.3% Projected vote · D+30.6 ± 9.0 Ravensworth 33.7%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: D+7.4 — Valdivia wins Simulation 2: D+11.1 — Valdivia wins Simulation 3: D+13 — Valdivia wins Simulation 4: D+14.3 — Valdivia wins Simulation 5: D+15.3 — Valdivia wins Simulation 6: D+16.2 — Valdivia wins Simulation 7: D+17 — Valdivia wins Simulation 8: D+17.6 — Valdivia wins Simulation 9: D+18.3 — Valdivia wins Simulation 10: D+18.8 — Valdivia wins Simulation 11: D+19.3 — Valdivia wins Simulation 12: D+19.8 — Valdivia wins Simulation 13: D+20.2 — Valdivia wins Simulation 14: D+20.7 — Valdivia wins Simulation 15: D+21.1 — Valdivia wins Simulation 16: D+21.5 — Valdivia wins Simulation 17: D+21.8 — Valdivia wins Simulation 18: D+22.2 — Valdivia wins Simulation 19: D+22.5 — Valdivia wins Simulation 20: D+22.9 — Valdivia wins Simulation 21: D+23.2 — Valdivia wins Simulation 22: D+23.5 — Valdivia wins Simulation 23: D+23.8 — Valdivia wins Simulation 24: D+24.1 — Valdivia wins Simulation 25: D+24.4 — Valdivia wins Simulation 26: D+24.7 — Valdivia wins Simulation 27: D+24.9 — Valdivia wins Simulation 28: D+25.2 — Valdivia wins Simulation 29: D+25.5 — Valdivia wins Simulation 30: D+25.8 — Valdivia wins Simulation 31: D+26 — Valdivia wins Simulation 32: D+26.3 — Valdivia wins Simulation 33: D+26.5 — Valdivia wins Simulation 34: D+26.8 — Valdivia wins Simulation 35: D+27 — Valdivia wins Simulation 36: D+27.3 — Valdivia wins Simulation 37: D+27.5 — Valdivia wins Simulation 38: D+27.7 — Valdivia wins Simulation 39: D+28 — Valdivia wins Simulation 40: D+28.2 — Valdivia wins Simulation 41: D+28.4 — Valdivia wins Simulation 42: D+28.7 — Valdivia wins Simulation 43: D+28.9 — Valdivia wins Simulation 44: D+29.1 — Valdivia wins Simulation 45: D+29.4 — Valdivia wins Simulation 46: D+29.6 — Valdivia wins Simulation 47: D+29.8 — Valdivia wins Simulation 48: D+30 — Valdivia wins Simulation 49: D+30.3 — Valdivia wins Simulation 50: D+30.5 — Valdivia wins Simulation 51: D+30.7 — Valdivia wins Simulation 52: D+30.9 — Valdivia wins Simulation 53: D+31.2 — Valdivia wins Simulation 54: D+31.4 — Valdivia wins Simulation 55: D+31.6 — Valdivia wins Simulation 56: D+31.8 — Valdivia wins Simulation 57: D+32.1 — Valdivia wins Simulation 58: D+32.3 — Valdivia wins Simulation 59: D+32.5 — Valdivia wins Simulation 60: D+32.8 — Valdivia wins Simulation 61: D+33 — Valdivia wins Simulation 62: D+33.2 — Valdivia wins Simulation 63: D+33.5 — Valdivia wins Simulation 64: D+33.7 — Valdivia wins Simulation 65: D+33.9 — Valdivia wins Simulation 66: D+34.2 — Valdivia wins Simulation 67: D+34.4 — Valdivia wins Simulation 68: D+34.7 — Valdivia wins Simulation 69: D+34.9 — Valdivia wins Simulation 70: D+35.2 — Valdivia wins Simulation 71: D+35.4 — Valdivia wins Simulation 72: D+35.7 — Valdivia wins Simulation 73: D+36 — Valdivia wins Simulation 74: D+36.3 — Valdivia wins Simulation 75: D+36.5 — Valdivia wins Simulation 76: D+36.8 — Valdivia wins Simulation 77: D+37.1 — Valdivia wins Simulation 78: D+37.4 — Valdivia wins Simulation 79: D+37.7 — Valdivia wins Simulation 80: D+38 — Valdivia wins Simulation 81: D+38.3 — Valdivia wins Simulation 82: D+38.7 — Valdivia wins Simulation 83: D+39 — Valdivia wins Simulation 84: D+39.4 — Valdivia wins Simulation 85: D+39.7 — Valdivia wins Simulation 86: D+40.1 — Valdivia wins Simulation 87: D+40.5 — Valdivia wins Simulation 88: D+41 — Valdivia wins Simulation 89: D+41.4 — Valdivia wins Simulation 90: D+41.9 — Valdivia wins Simulation 91: D+42.4 — Valdivia wins Simulation 92: D+42.9 — Valdivia wins Simulation 93: D+43.6 — Valdivia wins Simulation 94: D+44.2 — Valdivia wins Simulation 95: D+45 — Valdivia wins Simulation 96: D+45.9 — Valdivia wins Simulation 97: D+46.9 — Valdivia wins Simulation 98: D+48.2 — Valdivia wins Simulation 99: D+50.1 — Valdivia wins Simulation 100: D+53.8 — Valdivia wins R+10 Even D+10 D+20 D+30 D+40 D+50 D+60 Valdivia wins 100 of 100Ravensworth wins 0