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U.S. Representative for Chicago's 13th District

U.S. Representative for Chicago's 13th District · November 3, 2026Open seatLean D

Toivonen is favored to win

Laura ToivonenDemocratic · Challenger

75%chance of winning

Farah SerafinRepublican · Challenger

25%chance of winning

75%25%

Toivonen 52.1%Projected vote · D+6.1 ± 9.0Serafin 45.9%

Each dot is one simulated election

Toivonen wins 75 of 100Serafin wins 25

The forecast over time

One point a day

Show the forecast as a table

Date	Toivonen	Serafin	Margin
Sep 1	71%	29%	D+6.5
Sep 22	72%	28%	D+6.5
Oct 13	71%	29%	D+5.8
Oct 30	75%	25%	D+6.1

The ratings

CNNCNN

Lean DD+7.7

Lean D in Chicago's 13th; Toivonen is favored by our team.

FOXFOX News

Lean DD+3.8

Lean D in Chicago's 13th. Serafin has the momentum on the economy.

Where the votes are

Area	Lean	Share of vote	Projected
Chicago 13th	D+4	100%	D+6.1

The candidates

Open seat: Bianca Lorenzo (D) is not running

Laura ToivonenDemocratic · Candidate for Chicago's 13th District

51%favorable−0.4 down this week

The Democratic nominee for Chicago's 13th District on November 3, 2026, against Farah Serafin; the seat is open.

Farah SerafinRepublican · Candidate for Chicago's 13th District

49%favorable+0.4 up this week

The Republican nominee for Chicago's 13th District on November 3, 2026, against Laura Toivonen; the seat is open.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.