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U.S. Representative for Chicago's 7th District
U.S. Representative for Chicago's 7th District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Alvarado is all but certain to win another term

Martin AlvaradoDemocratic · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Malik VuongRepublican · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Alvarado 75.2%Projected vote · D+52.3 ± 9.0Vuong 22.8%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: D+29.1 — Alvarado winsSimulation 2: D+32.8 — Alvarado winsSimulation 3: D+34.7 — Alvarado winsSimulation 4: D+36 — Alvarado winsSimulation 5: D+37 — Alvarado winsSimulation 6: D+37.9 — Alvarado winsSimulation 7: D+38.7 — Alvarado winsSimulation 8: D+39.3 — Alvarado winsSimulation 9: D+40 — Alvarado winsSimulation 10: D+40.5 — Alvarado winsSimulation 11: D+41 — Alvarado winsSimulation 12: D+41.5 — Alvarado winsSimulation 13: D+41.9 — Alvarado winsSimulation 14: D+42.4 — Alvarado winsSimulation 15: D+42.8 — Alvarado winsSimulation 16: D+43.2 — Alvarado winsSimulation 17: D+43.5 — Alvarado winsSimulation 18: D+43.9 — Alvarado winsSimulation 19: D+44.2 — Alvarado winsSimulation 20: D+44.6 — Alvarado winsSimulation 21: D+44.9 — Alvarado winsSimulation 22: D+45.2 — Alvarado winsSimulation 23: D+45.5 — Alvarado winsSimulation 24: D+45.8 — Alvarado winsSimulation 25: D+46.1 — Alvarado winsSimulation 26: D+46.4 — Alvarado winsSimulation 27: D+46.6 — Alvarado winsSimulation 28: D+46.9 — Alvarado winsSimulation 29: D+47.2 — Alvarado winsSimulation 30: D+47.5 — Alvarado winsSimulation 31: D+47.7 — Alvarado winsSimulation 32: D+48 — Alvarado winsSimulation 33: D+48.2 — Alvarado winsSimulation 34: D+48.5 — Alvarado winsSimulation 35: D+48.7 — Alvarado winsSimulation 36: D+49 — Alvarado winsSimulation 37: D+49.2 — Alvarado winsSimulation 38: D+49.4 — Alvarado winsSimulation 39: D+49.7 — Alvarado winsSimulation 40: D+49.9 — Alvarado winsSimulation 41: D+50.1 — Alvarado winsSimulation 42: D+50.4 — Alvarado winsSimulation 43: D+50.6 — Alvarado winsSimulation 44: D+50.8 — Alvarado winsSimulation 45: D+51.1 — Alvarado winsSimulation 46: D+51.3 — Alvarado winsSimulation 47: D+51.5 — Alvarado winsSimulation 48: D+51.7 — Alvarado winsSimulation 49: D+52 — Alvarado winsSimulation 50: D+52.2 — Alvarado winsSimulation 51: D+52.4 — Alvarado winsSimulation 52: D+52.6 — Alvarado winsSimulation 53: D+52.9 — Alvarado winsSimulation 54: D+53.1 — Alvarado winsSimulation 55: D+53.3 — Alvarado winsSimulation 56: D+53.5 — Alvarado winsSimulation 57: D+53.8 — Alvarado winsSimulation 58: D+54 — Alvarado winsSimulation 59: D+54.2 — Alvarado winsSimulation 60: D+54.5 — Alvarado winsSimulation 61: D+54.7 — Alvarado winsSimulation 62: D+54.9 — Alvarado winsSimulation 63: D+55.2 — Alvarado winsSimulation 64: D+55.4 — Alvarado winsSimulation 65: D+55.6 — Alvarado winsSimulation 66: D+55.9 — Alvarado winsSimulation 67: D+56.1 — Alvarado winsSimulation 68: D+56.4 — Alvarado winsSimulation 69: D+56.6 — Alvarado winsSimulation 70: D+56.9 — Alvarado winsSimulation 71: D+57.1 — Alvarado winsSimulation 72: D+57.4 — Alvarado winsSimulation 73: D+57.7 — Alvarado winsSimulation 74: D+58 — Alvarado winsSimulation 75: D+58.2 — Alvarado winsSimulation 76: D+58.5 — Alvarado winsSimulation 77: D+58.8 — Alvarado winsSimulation 78: D+59.1 — Alvarado winsSimulation 79: D+59.4 — Alvarado winsSimulation 80: D+59.7 — Alvarado winsSimulation 81: D+60 — Alvarado winsSimulation 82: D+60.4 — Alvarado winsSimulation 83: D+60.7 — Alvarado winsSimulation 84: D+61.1 — Alvarado winsSimulation 85: D+61.4 — Alvarado winsSimulation 86: D+61.8 — Alvarado winsSimulation 87: D+62.2 — Alvarado winsSimulation 88: D+62.7 — Alvarado winsSimulation 89: D+63.1 — Alvarado winsSimulation 90: D+63.6 — Alvarado winsSimulation 91: D+64.1 — Alvarado winsSimulation 92: D+64.6 — Alvarado winsSimulation 93: D+65.3 — Alvarado winsSimulation 94: D+65.9 — Alvarado winsSimulation 95: D+66.7 — Alvarado winsSimulation 96: D+67.6 — Alvarado winsSimulation 97: D+68.6 — Alvarado winsSimulation 98: D+69.9 — Alvarado winsSimulation 99: D+71.8 — Alvarado winsSimulation 100: D+75.5 — Alvarado winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50D+60D+70D+80
Alvarado wins 100 of 100Vuong wins 0

The forecast over time

One point a day
AlvaradoVuong
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Alvarado >99%Vuong <1%
Show the forecast as a table
DateAlvaradoVuongMargin
Sep 1>99%<1%D+52.6
Sep 22>99%<1%D+53.1
Oct 13>99%<1%D+52.4
Oct 30>99%<1%D+52.3

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+53.3

Safe D. Alvarado leads by about 53 in Chicago's 7th.

FOX News
Safe DD+49.6

Chicago's 7th: Safe D. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Chicago 7thD+48100%D+52.3

The candidates

Martin AlvaradoDemocratic · Incumbent
49%approve0.0 unchanged this week

Has represented Chicago's 7th District in the House since January 2019. Known at home for the hospital merger; in Washington for the local port. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Malik Vuong.

  • The hospital merger
  • The local port
Malik VuongRepublican · Candidate for Chicago's 7th District
46%favorable+1.5 up this week

The Republican nominee for Chicago's 7th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Martin Alvarado.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.