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U.S. Representative for Penn A's 11th District
U.S. Representative for Penn A's 11th District · November 3, 2026Safe R

Kilbride is clearly favored to win another term

Sean KowalczykDemocratic · Challenger
3%chance of winning
Carlos KilbrideRepublican · Incumbent
97%chance of winning
Kowalczyk 40.3%Projected vote · R+17.3 ± 9.0Kilbride 57.7%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+40.5 — Kilbride winsSimulation 2: R+36.8 — Kilbride winsSimulation 3: R+34.9 — Kilbride winsSimulation 4: R+33.6 — Kilbride winsSimulation 5: R+32.6 — Kilbride winsSimulation 6: R+31.7 — Kilbride winsSimulation 7: R+30.9 — Kilbride winsSimulation 8: R+30.3 — Kilbride winsSimulation 9: R+29.6 — Kilbride winsSimulation 10: R+29.1 — Kilbride winsSimulation 11: R+28.6 — Kilbride winsSimulation 12: R+28.1 — Kilbride winsSimulation 13: R+27.7 — Kilbride winsSimulation 14: R+27.2 — Kilbride winsSimulation 15: R+26.8 — Kilbride winsSimulation 16: R+26.4 — Kilbride winsSimulation 17: R+26.1 — Kilbride winsSimulation 18: R+25.7 — Kilbride winsSimulation 19: R+25.4 — Kilbride winsSimulation 20: R+25 — Kilbride winsSimulation 21: R+24.7 — Kilbride winsSimulation 22: R+24.4 — Kilbride winsSimulation 23: R+24.1 — Kilbride winsSimulation 24: R+23.8 — Kilbride winsSimulation 25: R+23.5 — Kilbride winsSimulation 26: R+23.2 — Kilbride winsSimulation 27: R+23 — Kilbride winsSimulation 28: R+22.7 — Kilbride winsSimulation 29: R+22.4 — Kilbride winsSimulation 30: R+22.1 — Kilbride winsSimulation 31: R+21.9 — Kilbride winsSimulation 32: R+21.6 — Kilbride winsSimulation 33: R+21.4 — Kilbride winsSimulation 34: R+21.1 — Kilbride winsSimulation 35: R+20.9 — Kilbride winsSimulation 36: R+20.6 — Kilbride winsSimulation 37: R+20.4 — Kilbride winsSimulation 38: R+20.2 — Kilbride winsSimulation 39: R+19.9 — Kilbride winsSimulation 40: R+19.7 — Kilbride winsSimulation 41: R+19.5 — Kilbride winsSimulation 42: R+19.2 — Kilbride winsSimulation 43: R+19 — Kilbride winsSimulation 44: R+18.8 — Kilbride winsSimulation 45: R+18.5 — Kilbride winsSimulation 46: R+18.3 — Kilbride winsSimulation 47: R+18.1 — Kilbride winsSimulation 48: R+17.9 — Kilbride winsSimulation 49: R+17.6 — Kilbride winsSimulation 50: R+17.4 — Kilbride winsSimulation 51: R+17.2 — Kilbride winsSimulation 52: R+17 — Kilbride winsSimulation 53: R+16.7 — Kilbride winsSimulation 54: R+16.5 — Kilbride winsSimulation 55: R+16.3 — Kilbride winsSimulation 56: R+16.1 — Kilbride winsSimulation 57: R+15.8 — Kilbride winsSimulation 58: R+15.6 — Kilbride winsSimulation 59: R+15.4 — Kilbride winsSimulation 60: R+15.1 — Kilbride winsSimulation 61: R+14.9 — Kilbride winsSimulation 62: R+14.7 — Kilbride winsSimulation 63: R+14.4 — Kilbride winsSimulation 64: R+14.2 — Kilbride winsSimulation 65: R+14 — Kilbride winsSimulation 66: R+13.7 — Kilbride winsSimulation 67: R+13.5 — Kilbride winsSimulation 68: R+13.2 — Kilbride winsSimulation 69: R+13 — Kilbride winsSimulation 70: R+12.7 — Kilbride winsSimulation 71: R+12.5 — Kilbride winsSimulation 72: R+12.2 — Kilbride winsSimulation 73: R+11.9 — Kilbride winsSimulation 74: R+11.6 — Kilbride winsSimulation 75: R+11.4 — Kilbride winsSimulation 76: R+11.1 — Kilbride winsSimulation 77: R+10.8 — Kilbride winsSimulation 78: R+10.5 — Kilbride winsSimulation 79: R+10.2 — Kilbride winsSimulation 80: R+9.9 — Kilbride winsSimulation 81: R+9.6 — Kilbride winsSimulation 82: R+9.2 — Kilbride winsSimulation 83: R+8.9 — Kilbride winsSimulation 84: R+8.5 — Kilbride winsSimulation 85: R+8.2 — Kilbride winsSimulation 86: R+7.8 — Kilbride winsSimulation 87: R+7.4 — Kilbride winsSimulation 88: R+6.9 — Kilbride winsSimulation 89: R+6.5 — Kilbride winsSimulation 90: R+6 — Kilbride winsSimulation 91: R+5.5 — Kilbride winsSimulation 92: R+5 — Kilbride winsSimulation 93: R+4.3 — Kilbride winsSimulation 94: R+3.7 — Kilbride winsSimulation 95: R+2.9 — Kilbride winsSimulation 96: R+2 — Kilbride winsSimulation 97: R+1 — Kilbride winsSimulation 98: D+0.3 — Kowalczyk winsSimulation 99: D+2.2 — Kowalczyk winsSimulation 100: D+5.9 — Kowalczyk winsR+50R+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10
Kowalczyk wins 3 of 100Kilbride wins 97

The forecast over time

One point a day
KowalczykKilbride
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Kowalczyk 3%Kilbride 97%
Show the forecast as a table
DateKowalczykKilbrideMargin
Sep 18%92%R+16.9
Sep 227%93%R+16.5
Oct 135%95%R+17.2
Oct 303%97%R+17.3

The ratings

CNN
Safe RR+16.2

Safe R. Kilbride leads by about 16 in Penn A's 11th.

FOX News
Safe RR+20.1

Safe R. Penn A's 11th voters care about prices, not pundits.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Penn A 11thR+16100%R+17.3

The candidates

Sean KowalczykDemocratic · Candidate for Penn A's 11th District
46%favorable+0.1 up this week

The Democratic nominee for Penn A's 11th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Carlos Kilbride.

Carlos KilbrideRepublican · Incumbent
52%approve−0.5 down this week

Has represented Penn A's 11th District in the House since October 2026. One of Penn A's first 17 members of the House, elected in the admission vote and sworn in on October 2, 2026, the day Penn A joined the Union. Known at home for small-business loans; in Washington for housing costs. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Sean Kowalczyk.

  • Small-business loans
  • Housing costs

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.