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U.S. Representative for Chicago's 8th District
U.S. Representative for Chicago's 8th District · November 3, 2026Likely D

Mwangi is clearly favored to win another term

Olivia MwangiDemocratic · Incumbent
93%chance of winning
Mira EngebretsenRepublican · Challenger
7%chance of winning
Mwangi 55.6%Projected vote · D+13.2 ± 9.0Engebretsen 42.4%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+10 — Engebretsen winsSimulation 2: R+6.3 — Engebretsen winsSimulation 3: R+4.4 — Engebretsen winsSimulation 4: R+3.1 — Engebretsen winsSimulation 5: R+2.1 — Engebretsen winsSimulation 6: R+1.2 — Engebretsen winsSimulation 7: R+0.4 — Engebretsen winsSimulation 8: D+0.2 — Mwangi winsSimulation 9: D+0.9 — Mwangi winsSimulation 10: D+1.4 — Mwangi winsSimulation 11: D+1.9 — Mwangi winsSimulation 12: D+2.4 — Mwangi winsSimulation 13: D+2.8 — Mwangi winsSimulation 14: D+3.3 — Mwangi winsSimulation 15: D+3.7 — Mwangi winsSimulation 16: D+4.1 — Mwangi winsSimulation 17: D+4.4 — Mwangi winsSimulation 18: D+4.8 — Mwangi winsSimulation 19: D+5.1 — Mwangi winsSimulation 20: D+5.5 — Mwangi winsSimulation 21: D+5.8 — Mwangi winsSimulation 22: D+6.1 — Mwangi winsSimulation 23: D+6.4 — Mwangi winsSimulation 24: D+6.7 — Mwangi winsSimulation 25: D+7 — Mwangi winsSimulation 26: D+7.3 — Mwangi winsSimulation 27: D+7.5 — Mwangi winsSimulation 28: D+7.8 — Mwangi winsSimulation 29: D+8.1 — Mwangi winsSimulation 30: D+8.4 — Mwangi winsSimulation 31: D+8.6 — Mwangi winsSimulation 32: D+8.9 — Mwangi winsSimulation 33: D+9.1 — Mwangi winsSimulation 34: D+9.4 — Mwangi winsSimulation 35: D+9.6 — Mwangi winsSimulation 36: D+9.9 — Mwangi winsSimulation 37: D+10.1 — Mwangi winsSimulation 38: D+10.3 — Mwangi winsSimulation 39: D+10.6 — Mwangi winsSimulation 40: D+10.8 — Mwangi winsSimulation 41: D+11 — Mwangi winsSimulation 42: D+11.3 — Mwangi winsSimulation 43: D+11.5 — Mwangi winsSimulation 44: D+11.7 — Mwangi winsSimulation 45: D+12 — Mwangi winsSimulation 46: D+12.2 — Mwangi winsSimulation 47: D+12.4 — Mwangi winsSimulation 48: D+12.6 — Mwangi winsSimulation 49: D+12.9 — Mwangi winsSimulation 50: D+13.1 — Mwangi winsSimulation 51: D+13.3 — Mwangi winsSimulation 52: D+13.5 — Mwangi winsSimulation 53: D+13.8 — Mwangi winsSimulation 54: D+14 — Mwangi winsSimulation 55: D+14.2 — Mwangi winsSimulation 56: D+14.4 — Mwangi winsSimulation 57: D+14.7 — Mwangi winsSimulation 58: D+14.9 — Mwangi winsSimulation 59: D+15.1 — Mwangi winsSimulation 60: D+15.4 — Mwangi winsSimulation 61: D+15.6 — Mwangi winsSimulation 62: D+15.8 — Mwangi winsSimulation 63: D+16.1 — Mwangi winsSimulation 64: D+16.3 — Mwangi winsSimulation 65: D+16.5 — Mwangi winsSimulation 66: D+16.8 — Mwangi winsSimulation 67: D+17 — Mwangi winsSimulation 68: D+17.3 — Mwangi winsSimulation 69: D+17.5 — Mwangi winsSimulation 70: D+17.8 — Mwangi winsSimulation 71: D+18 — Mwangi winsSimulation 72: D+18.3 — Mwangi winsSimulation 73: D+18.6 — Mwangi winsSimulation 74: D+18.9 — Mwangi winsSimulation 75: D+19.1 — Mwangi winsSimulation 76: D+19.4 — Mwangi winsSimulation 77: D+19.7 — Mwangi winsSimulation 78: D+20 — Mwangi winsSimulation 79: D+20.3 — Mwangi winsSimulation 80: D+20.6 — Mwangi winsSimulation 81: D+20.9 — Mwangi winsSimulation 82: D+21.3 — Mwangi winsSimulation 83: D+21.6 — Mwangi winsSimulation 84: D+22 — Mwangi winsSimulation 85: D+22.3 — Mwangi winsSimulation 86: D+22.7 — Mwangi winsSimulation 87: D+23.1 — Mwangi winsSimulation 88: D+23.6 — Mwangi winsSimulation 89: D+24 — Mwangi winsSimulation 90: D+24.5 — Mwangi winsSimulation 91: D+25 — Mwangi winsSimulation 92: D+25.5 — Mwangi winsSimulation 93: D+26.2 — Mwangi winsSimulation 94: D+26.8 — Mwangi winsSimulation 95: D+27.6 — Mwangi winsSimulation 96: D+28.5 — Mwangi winsSimulation 97: D+29.5 — Mwangi winsSimulation 98: D+30.8 — Mwangi winsSimulation 99: D+32.7 — Mwangi winsSimulation 100: D+36.4 — Mwangi winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40
Mwangi wins 93 of 100Engebretsen wins 7

The forecast over time

One point a day
MwangiEngebretsen
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Mwangi 93%Engebretsen 7%
Show the forecast as a table
DateMwangiEngebretsenMargin
Sep 188%12%D+13.8
Sep 2289%11%D+13.7
Oct 1390%10%D+12.9
Oct 3093%7%D+13.2

The ratings

CNN
Likely DD+14.2

Likely D in Chicago's 8th; Mwangi is favored by our team.

FOX News
Likely DD+10.3

Likely D. Chicago's 8th voters care about prices, not pundits.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Chicago 8thD+9100%D+13.2

The candidates

Olivia MwangiDemocratic · Incumbent
48%approve+0.6 up this week

Has represented Chicago's 8th District in the House since January 2023. Known at home for child care; in Washington for the commuter line. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Mira Engebretsen.

  • Child care
  • The commuter line
Mira EngebretsenRepublican · Candidate for Chicago's 8th District
46%favorable+0.5 up this week

The Republican nominee for Chicago's 8th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Olivia Mwangi.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.