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U.S. Representative for Chicago's 2nd District
U.S. Representative for Chicago's 2nd District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Desrosiers is all but certain to win another term

Lucia DesrosiersDemocratic · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Bianca EcholsRepublican · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Desrosiers 68.7%Projected vote · D+39.4 ± 9.0Echols 29.3%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: D+16.2 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 2: D+19.9 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 3: D+21.8 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 4: D+23.1 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 5: D+24.1 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 6: D+25 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 7: D+25.8 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 8: D+26.4 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 9: D+27.1 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 10: D+27.6 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 11: D+28.1 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 12: D+28.6 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 13: D+29 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 14: D+29.5 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 15: D+29.9 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 16: D+30.3 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 17: D+30.6 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 18: D+31 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 19: D+31.3 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 20: D+31.7 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 21: D+32 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 22: D+32.3 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 23: D+32.6 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 24: D+32.9 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 25: D+33.2 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 26: D+33.5 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 27: D+33.7 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 28: D+34 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 29: D+34.3 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 30: D+34.6 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 31: D+34.8 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 32: D+35.1 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 33: D+35.3 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 34: D+35.6 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 35: D+35.8 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 36: D+36.1 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 37: D+36.3 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 38: D+36.5 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 39: D+36.8 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 40: D+37 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 41: D+37.2 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 42: D+37.5 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 43: D+37.7 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 44: D+37.9 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 45: D+38.2 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 46: D+38.4 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 47: D+38.6 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 48: D+38.8 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 49: D+39.1 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 50: D+39.3 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 51: D+39.5 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 52: D+39.7 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 53: D+40 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 54: D+40.2 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 55: D+40.4 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 56: D+40.6 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 57: D+40.9 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 58: D+41.1 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 59: D+41.3 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 60: D+41.6 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 61: D+41.8 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 62: D+42 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 63: D+42.3 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 64: D+42.5 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 65: D+42.7 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 66: D+43 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 67: D+43.2 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 68: D+43.5 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 69: D+43.7 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 70: D+44 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 71: D+44.2 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 72: D+44.5 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 73: D+44.8 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 74: D+45.1 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 75: D+45.3 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 76: D+45.6 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 77: D+45.9 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 78: D+46.2 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 79: D+46.5 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 80: D+46.8 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 81: D+47.1 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 82: D+47.5 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 83: D+47.8 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 84: D+48.2 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 85: D+48.5 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 86: D+48.9 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 87: D+49.3 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 88: D+49.8 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 89: D+50.2 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 90: D+50.7 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 91: D+51.2 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 92: D+51.7 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 93: D+52.4 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 94: D+53 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 95: D+53.8 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 96: D+54.7 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 97: D+55.7 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 98: D+57 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 99: D+58.9 — Desrosiers winsSimulation 100: D+62.6 — Desrosiers winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50D+60D+70
Desrosiers wins 100 of 100Echols wins 0

The forecast over time

One point a day
DesrosiersEchols
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Desrosiers >99%Echols <1%
Show the forecast as a table
DateDesrosiersEcholsMargin
Sep 1>99%<1%D+39.3
Sep 22>99%<1%D+39.9
Oct 13>99%<1%D+39.1
Oct 30>99%<1%D+39.4

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+41.7

Safe D. Desrosiers leads by about 42 in Chicago's 2nd.

FOX News
Safe DD+36.9

Safe D in Chicago's 2nd. Echols has the momentum on the economy.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Chicago 2ndD+34100%D+39.4

The candidates

Lucia DesrosiersDemocratic · Incumbent
54%approve−1.0 down this week

Has represented Chicago's 2nd District in the House since January 2015. Known at home for the factory reopening; in Washington for school funding. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Bianca Echols.

  • The factory reopening
  • School funding
Bianca EcholsRepublican · Candidate for Chicago's 2nd District
45%favorable−0.3 down this week

The Republican nominee for Chicago's 2nd District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Lucia Desrosiers.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.