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U.S. Representative for North C's 14th District
U.S. Representative for North C's 14th District · November 3, 2026Lean R

Birnbaum is favored to win another term

Laura BarloweDemocratic · Challenger
20%chance of winning
Priya BirnbaumRepublican · Incumbent
80%chance of winning
Barlowe 45.3%Projected vote · R+7.4 ± 9.0Birnbaum 52.7%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+30.6 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 2: R+26.9 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 3: R+25 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 4: R+23.7 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 5: R+22.7 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 6: R+21.8 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 7: R+21 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 8: R+20.4 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 9: R+19.7 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 10: R+19.2 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 11: R+18.7 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 12: R+18.2 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 13: R+17.8 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 14: R+17.3 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 15: R+16.9 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 16: R+16.5 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 17: R+16.2 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 18: R+15.8 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 19: R+15.5 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 20: R+15.1 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 21: R+14.8 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 22: R+14.5 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 23: R+14.2 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 24: R+13.9 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 25: R+13.6 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 26: R+13.3 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 27: R+13.1 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 28: R+12.8 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 29: R+12.5 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 30: R+12.2 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 31: R+12 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 32: R+11.7 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 33: R+11.5 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 34: R+11.2 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 35: R+11 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 36: R+10.7 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 37: R+10.5 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 38: R+10.3 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 39: R+10 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 40: R+9.8 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 41: R+9.6 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 42: R+9.3 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 43: R+9.1 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 44: R+8.9 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 45: R+8.6 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 46: R+8.4 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 47: R+8.2 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 48: R+8 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 49: R+7.7 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 50: R+7.5 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 51: R+7.3 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 52: R+7.1 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 53: R+6.8 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 54: R+6.6 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 55: R+6.4 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 56: R+6.2 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 57: R+5.9 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 58: R+5.7 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 59: R+5.5 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 60: R+5.2 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 61: R+5 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 62: R+4.8 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 63: R+4.5 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 64: R+4.3 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 65: R+4.1 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 66: R+3.8 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 67: R+3.6 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 68: R+3.3 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 69: R+3.1 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 70: R+2.8 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 71: R+2.6 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 72: R+2.3 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 73: R+2 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 74: R+1.7 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 75: R+1.5 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 76: R+1.2 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 77: R+0.9 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 78: R+0.6 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 79: R+0.3 — Birnbaum winsSimulation 80: Even — Barlowe winsSimulation 81: D+0.3 — Barlowe winsSimulation 82: D+0.7 — Barlowe winsSimulation 83: D+1 — Barlowe winsSimulation 84: D+1.4 — Barlowe winsSimulation 85: D+1.7 — Barlowe winsSimulation 86: D+2.1 — Barlowe winsSimulation 87: D+2.5 — Barlowe winsSimulation 88: D+3 — Barlowe winsSimulation 89: D+3.4 — Barlowe winsSimulation 90: D+3.9 — Barlowe winsSimulation 91: D+4.4 — Barlowe winsSimulation 92: D+4.9 — Barlowe winsSimulation 93: D+5.6 — Barlowe winsSimulation 94: D+6.2 — Barlowe winsSimulation 95: D+7 — Barlowe winsSimulation 96: D+7.9 — Barlowe winsSimulation 97: D+8.9 — Barlowe winsSimulation 98: D+10.2 — Barlowe winsSimulation 99: D+12.1 — Barlowe winsSimulation 100: D+15.8 — Barlowe winsR+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
Barlowe wins 21 of 100Birnbaum wins 79

The forecast over time

One point a day
BarloweBirnbaum
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayBarlowe 20%Birnbaum 80%
Show the forecast as a table
DateBarloweBirnbaumMargin
Sep 127%73%R+7.1
Sep 2226%74%R+7.2
Oct 1323%77%R+7.7
Oct 3020%80%R+7.4

The ratings

CNN
Lean RR+5.7

Lean R in North C's 14th; Birnbaum is favored by our team.

FOX News
Likely RR+10.5

Likely R in North C's 14th. Birnbaum has the momentum on the economy.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
North C 14thR+6100%R+7.4

The candidates

Laura BarloweDemocratic · Candidate for North C's 14th District
42%favorable+1.5 up this week

The Democratic nominee for North C's 14th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Priya Birnbaum.

Priya BirnbaumRepublican · Incumbent
48%approve+0.7 up this week

Has represented North C's 14th District in the House since January 2021. Known at home for broadband; in Washington for the highway rebuild. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Laura Barlowe.

  • Broadband
  • The highway rebuild

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:30 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.