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U.S. Representative for North C's 6th District
U.S. Representative for North C's 6th District · November 3, 2026Likely R

Aldana is favored to win another term

Lamar ThorneDemocratic · Challenger
13%chance of winning
Benjamin AldanaRepublican · Incumbent
87%chance of winning
Thorne 43.9%Projected vote · R+10.1 ± 9.0Aldana 54.1%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+33.3 — Aldana winsSimulation 2: R+29.6 — Aldana winsSimulation 3: R+27.7 — Aldana winsSimulation 4: R+26.4 — Aldana winsSimulation 5: R+25.4 — Aldana winsSimulation 6: R+24.5 — Aldana winsSimulation 7: R+23.7 — Aldana winsSimulation 8: R+23.1 — Aldana winsSimulation 9: R+22.4 — Aldana winsSimulation 10: R+21.9 — Aldana winsSimulation 11: R+21.4 — Aldana winsSimulation 12: R+20.9 — Aldana winsSimulation 13: R+20.5 — Aldana winsSimulation 14: R+20 — Aldana winsSimulation 15: R+19.6 — Aldana winsSimulation 16: R+19.2 — Aldana winsSimulation 17: R+18.9 — Aldana winsSimulation 18: R+18.5 — Aldana winsSimulation 19: R+18.2 — Aldana winsSimulation 20: R+17.8 — Aldana winsSimulation 21: R+17.5 — Aldana winsSimulation 22: R+17.2 — Aldana winsSimulation 23: R+16.9 — Aldana winsSimulation 24: R+16.6 — Aldana winsSimulation 25: R+16.3 — Aldana winsSimulation 26: R+16 — Aldana winsSimulation 27: R+15.8 — Aldana winsSimulation 28: R+15.5 — Aldana winsSimulation 29: R+15.2 — Aldana winsSimulation 30: R+14.9 — Aldana winsSimulation 31: R+14.7 — Aldana winsSimulation 32: R+14.4 — Aldana winsSimulation 33: R+14.2 — Aldana winsSimulation 34: R+13.9 — Aldana winsSimulation 35: R+13.7 — Aldana winsSimulation 36: R+13.4 — Aldana winsSimulation 37: R+13.2 — Aldana winsSimulation 38: R+13 — Aldana winsSimulation 39: R+12.7 — Aldana winsSimulation 40: R+12.5 — Aldana winsSimulation 41: R+12.3 — Aldana winsSimulation 42: R+12 — Aldana winsSimulation 43: R+11.8 — Aldana winsSimulation 44: R+11.6 — Aldana winsSimulation 45: R+11.3 — Aldana winsSimulation 46: R+11.1 — Aldana winsSimulation 47: R+10.9 — Aldana winsSimulation 48: R+10.7 — Aldana winsSimulation 49: R+10.4 — Aldana winsSimulation 50: R+10.2 — Aldana winsSimulation 51: R+10 — Aldana winsSimulation 52: R+9.8 — Aldana winsSimulation 53: R+9.5 — Aldana winsSimulation 54: R+9.3 — Aldana winsSimulation 55: R+9.1 — Aldana winsSimulation 56: R+8.9 — Aldana winsSimulation 57: R+8.6 — Aldana winsSimulation 58: R+8.4 — Aldana winsSimulation 59: R+8.2 — Aldana winsSimulation 60: R+7.9 — Aldana winsSimulation 61: R+7.7 — Aldana winsSimulation 62: R+7.5 — Aldana winsSimulation 63: R+7.2 — Aldana winsSimulation 64: R+7 — Aldana winsSimulation 65: R+6.8 — Aldana winsSimulation 66: R+6.5 — Aldana winsSimulation 67: R+6.3 — Aldana winsSimulation 68: R+6 — Aldana winsSimulation 69: R+5.8 — Aldana winsSimulation 70: R+5.5 — Aldana winsSimulation 71: R+5.3 — Aldana winsSimulation 72: R+5 — Aldana winsSimulation 73: R+4.7 — Aldana winsSimulation 74: R+4.4 — Aldana winsSimulation 75: R+4.2 — Aldana winsSimulation 76: R+3.9 — Aldana winsSimulation 77: R+3.6 — Aldana winsSimulation 78: R+3.3 — Aldana winsSimulation 79: R+3 — Aldana winsSimulation 80: R+2.7 — Aldana winsSimulation 81: R+2.4 — Aldana winsSimulation 82: R+2 — Aldana winsSimulation 83: R+1.7 — Aldana winsSimulation 84: R+1.3 — Aldana winsSimulation 85: R+1 — Aldana winsSimulation 86: R+0.6 — Aldana winsSimulation 87: R+0.2 — Aldana winsSimulation 88: D+0.3 — Thorne winsSimulation 89: D+0.7 — Thorne winsSimulation 90: D+1.2 — Thorne winsSimulation 91: D+1.7 — Thorne winsSimulation 92: D+2.2 — Thorne winsSimulation 93: D+2.9 — Thorne winsSimulation 94: D+3.5 — Thorne winsSimulation 95: D+4.3 — Thorne winsSimulation 96: D+5.2 — Thorne winsSimulation 97: D+6.2 — Thorne winsSimulation 98: D+7.5 — Thorne winsSimulation 99: D+9.4 — Thorne winsSimulation 100: D+13.1 — Thorne winsR+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
Thorne wins 13 of 100Aldana wins 87

The forecast over time

One point a day
ThorneAldana
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayThorne 13%Aldana 87%
Show the forecast as a table
DateThorneAldanaMargin
Sep 121%79%R+9.7
Sep 2219%81%R+9.7
Oct 1315%85%R+10.5
Oct 3013%87%R+10.1

The ratings

CNN
Likely RR+9.3

Likely R in North C's 6th; Aldana is favored by our team.

FOX News
Likely RR+12.3

Likely R. North C's 6th voters care about prices, not pundits.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
North C 6thR+9100%R+10.1

The candidates

Lamar ThorneDemocratic · Candidate for North C's 6th District
45%favorable−0.4 down this week

The Democratic nominee for North C's 6th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Benjamin Aldana.

Benjamin AldanaRepublican · Incumbent
49%approve−0.7 down this week

Has represented North C's 6th District in the House since January 2019. Known at home for transit money for the district; in Washington for public safety grants. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Lamar Thorne.

  • Transit money for the district
  • Public safety grants

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:30 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.