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U.S. Senator for Chicago
U.S. Senator for Chicago · November 3, 2026Open seatLikely D

Bello is clearly favored to win

Aisha BelloDemocratic · Challenger
96%chance of winning
Kurt LindgrenRepublican · Challenger
4%chance of winning
Bello 56.1%Projected vote · D+14.3 ± 7.9Lindgren 41.9%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+6 — Lindgren winsSimulation 2: R+2.8 — Lindgren winsSimulation 3: R+1.2 — Lindgren winsSimulation 4: Even — Lindgren winsSimulation 5: D+0.9 — Bello winsSimulation 6: D+1.7 — Bello winsSimulation 7: D+2.3 — Bello winsSimulation 8: D+2.9 — Bello winsSimulation 9: D+3.5 — Bello winsSimulation 10: D+3.9 — Bello winsSimulation 11: D+4.4 — Bello winsSimulation 12: D+4.8 — Bello winsSimulation 13: D+5.2 — Bello winsSimulation 14: D+5.6 — Bello winsSimulation 15: D+5.9 — Bello winsSimulation 16: D+6.3 — Bello winsSimulation 17: D+6.6 — Bello winsSimulation 18: D+6.9 — Bello winsSimulation 19: D+7.2 — Bello winsSimulation 20: D+7.5 — Bello winsSimulation 21: D+7.8 — Bello winsSimulation 22: D+8.1 — Bello winsSimulation 23: D+8.3 — Bello winsSimulation 24: D+8.6 — Bello winsSimulation 25: D+8.8 — Bello winsSimulation 26: D+9.1 — Bello winsSimulation 27: D+9.3 — Bello winsSimulation 28: D+9.6 — Bello winsSimulation 29: D+9.8 — Bello winsSimulation 30: D+10 — Bello winsSimulation 31: D+10.3 — Bello winsSimulation 32: D+10.5 — Bello winsSimulation 33: D+10.7 — Bello winsSimulation 34: D+10.9 — Bello winsSimulation 35: D+11.1 — Bello winsSimulation 36: D+11.4 — Bello winsSimulation 37: D+11.6 — Bello winsSimulation 38: D+11.8 — Bello winsSimulation 39: D+12 — Bello winsSimulation 40: D+12.2 — Bello winsSimulation 41: D+12.4 — Bello winsSimulation 42: D+12.6 — Bello winsSimulation 43: D+12.8 — Bello winsSimulation 44: D+13 — Bello winsSimulation 45: D+13.2 — Bello winsSimulation 46: D+13.4 — Bello winsSimulation 47: D+13.6 — Bello winsSimulation 48: D+13.8 — Bello winsSimulation 49: D+14 — Bello winsSimulation 50: D+14.2 — Bello winsSimulation 51: D+14.4 — Bello winsSimulation 52: D+14.6 — Bello winsSimulation 53: D+14.8 — Bello winsSimulation 54: D+15 — Bello winsSimulation 55: D+15.2 — Bello winsSimulation 56: D+15.4 — Bello winsSimulation 57: D+15.6 — Bello winsSimulation 58: D+15.8 — Bello winsSimulation 59: D+16 — Bello winsSimulation 60: D+16.2 — Bello winsSimulation 61: D+16.4 — Bello winsSimulation 62: D+16.6 — Bello winsSimulation 63: D+16.8 — Bello winsSimulation 64: D+17 — Bello winsSimulation 65: D+17.2 — Bello winsSimulation 66: D+17.5 — Bello winsSimulation 67: D+17.7 — Bello winsSimulation 68: D+17.9 — Bello winsSimulation 69: D+18.1 — Bello winsSimulation 70: D+18.3 — Bello winsSimulation 71: D+18.6 — Bello winsSimulation 72: D+18.8 — Bello winsSimulation 73: D+19 — Bello winsSimulation 74: D+19.3 — Bello winsSimulation 75: D+19.5 — Bello winsSimulation 76: D+19.8 — Bello winsSimulation 77: D+20 — Bello winsSimulation 78: D+20.3 — Bello winsSimulation 79: D+20.5 — Bello winsSimulation 80: D+20.8 — Bello winsSimulation 81: D+21.1 — Bello winsSimulation 82: D+21.4 — Bello winsSimulation 83: D+21.7 — Bello winsSimulation 84: D+22 — Bello winsSimulation 85: D+22.3 — Bello winsSimulation 86: D+22.7 — Bello winsSimulation 87: D+23 — Bello winsSimulation 88: D+23.4 — Bello winsSimulation 89: D+23.8 — Bello winsSimulation 90: D+24.2 — Bello winsSimulation 91: D+24.7 — Bello winsSimulation 92: D+25.1 — Bello winsSimulation 93: D+25.7 — Bello winsSimulation 94: D+26.3 — Bello winsSimulation 95: D+26.9 — Bello winsSimulation 96: D+27.7 — Bello winsSimulation 97: D+28.6 — Bello winsSimulation 98: D+29.8 — Bello winsSimulation 99: D+31.4 — Bello winsSimulation 100: D+34.6 — Bello winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40
Bello wins 96 of 100Lindgren wins 4

The forecast over time

One point a day
BelloLindgren
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Bello 96%Lindgren 4%
Show the forecast as a table
DateBelloLindgrenMargin
Sep 193%7%D+15
Sep 893%7%D+14.9
Sep 1593%7%D+14.6
Sep 2294%6%D+15
Sep 2994%6%D+14.4
Oct 694%6%D+14.5
Oct 1394%6%D+14.3
Oct 2095%5%D+14.1
Oct 2796%4%D+14.5
Oct 3096%4%D+14.3

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+15.3

Safe D. Bello leads by about 15 in Chicago.

FOX News
Likely DD+11.5

Likely D in Chicago. Lindgren has the momentum on the economy.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
ChicagoD+11100%D+14.3

The candidates

Open seat: Bernard Kowal (D) is not running
Aisha BelloDemocratic · Candidate for the U.S. Senate in Chicago
49%favorable0.0 unchanged this week

Lieutenant Governor of Chicago. The Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in Chicago on November 3, 2026, against Kurt Lindgren; the seat is open.

  • Transit funding
  • Child care
  • Clean water
Kurt LindgrenRepublican · Candidate for the U.S. Senate in Chicago
41%favorable−0.2 down this week

A farmer and former state representative. The Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in Chicago on November 3, 2026, against Aisha Bello; the seat is open.

  • Farm country
  • Lower taxes
  • Energy

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±7.9 points.