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U.S. Representative for V Beach's 1st District
U.S. Representative for V Beach's 1st District · November 3, 2026Lean R

Dagostino is favored to win another term

Marcus RenwickDemocratic · Challenger
20%chance of winning
Hector DagostinoRepublican · Incumbent
80%chance of winning
Renwick 45.1%Projected vote · R+7.7 ± 9.0Dagostino 52.9%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+30.9 — Dagostino winsSimulation 2: R+27.2 — Dagostino winsSimulation 3: R+25.3 — Dagostino winsSimulation 4: R+24 — Dagostino winsSimulation 5: R+23 — Dagostino winsSimulation 6: R+22.1 — Dagostino winsSimulation 7: R+21.3 — Dagostino winsSimulation 8: R+20.7 — Dagostino winsSimulation 9: R+20 — Dagostino winsSimulation 10: R+19.5 — Dagostino winsSimulation 11: R+19 — Dagostino winsSimulation 12: R+18.5 — Dagostino winsSimulation 13: R+18.1 — Dagostino winsSimulation 14: R+17.6 — Dagostino winsSimulation 15: R+17.2 — Dagostino winsSimulation 16: R+16.8 — Dagostino winsSimulation 17: R+16.5 — Dagostino winsSimulation 18: R+16.1 — Dagostino winsSimulation 19: R+15.8 — Dagostino winsSimulation 20: R+15.4 — Dagostino winsSimulation 21: R+15.1 — Dagostino winsSimulation 22: R+14.8 — Dagostino winsSimulation 23: R+14.5 — Dagostino winsSimulation 24: R+14.2 — Dagostino winsSimulation 25: R+13.9 — Dagostino winsSimulation 26: R+13.6 — Dagostino winsSimulation 27: R+13.4 — Dagostino winsSimulation 28: R+13.1 — Dagostino winsSimulation 29: R+12.8 — Dagostino winsSimulation 30: R+12.5 — Dagostino winsSimulation 31: R+12.3 — Dagostino winsSimulation 32: R+12 — Dagostino winsSimulation 33: R+11.8 — Dagostino winsSimulation 34: R+11.5 — Dagostino winsSimulation 35: R+11.3 — Dagostino winsSimulation 36: R+11 — Dagostino winsSimulation 37: R+10.8 — Dagostino winsSimulation 38: R+10.6 — Dagostino winsSimulation 39: R+10.3 — Dagostino winsSimulation 40: R+10.1 — Dagostino winsSimulation 41: R+9.9 — Dagostino winsSimulation 42: R+9.6 — Dagostino winsSimulation 43: R+9.4 — Dagostino winsSimulation 44: R+9.2 — Dagostino winsSimulation 45: R+8.9 — Dagostino winsSimulation 46: R+8.7 — Dagostino winsSimulation 47: R+8.5 — Dagostino winsSimulation 48: R+8.3 — Dagostino winsSimulation 49: R+8 — Dagostino winsSimulation 50: R+7.8 — Dagostino winsSimulation 51: R+7.6 — Dagostino winsSimulation 52: R+7.4 — Dagostino winsSimulation 53: R+7.1 — Dagostino winsSimulation 54: R+6.9 — Dagostino winsSimulation 55: R+6.7 — Dagostino winsSimulation 56: R+6.5 — Dagostino winsSimulation 57: R+6.2 — Dagostino winsSimulation 58: R+6 — Dagostino winsSimulation 59: R+5.8 — Dagostino winsSimulation 60: R+5.5 — Dagostino winsSimulation 61: R+5.3 — Dagostino winsSimulation 62: R+5.1 — Dagostino winsSimulation 63: R+4.8 — Dagostino winsSimulation 64: R+4.6 — Dagostino winsSimulation 65: R+4.4 — Dagostino winsSimulation 66: R+4.1 — Dagostino winsSimulation 67: R+3.9 — Dagostino winsSimulation 68: R+3.6 — Dagostino winsSimulation 69: R+3.4 — Dagostino winsSimulation 70: R+3.1 — Dagostino winsSimulation 71: R+2.9 — Dagostino winsSimulation 72: R+2.6 — Dagostino winsSimulation 73: R+2.3 — Dagostino winsSimulation 74: R+2 — Dagostino winsSimulation 75: R+1.8 — Dagostino winsSimulation 76: R+1.5 — Dagostino winsSimulation 77: R+1.2 — Dagostino winsSimulation 78: R+0.9 — Dagostino winsSimulation 79: R+0.6 — Dagostino winsSimulation 80: R+0.3 — Dagostino winsSimulation 81: Even — Renwick winsSimulation 82: D+0.4 — Renwick winsSimulation 83: D+0.7 — Renwick winsSimulation 84: D+1.1 — Renwick winsSimulation 85: D+1.4 — Renwick winsSimulation 86: D+1.8 — Renwick winsSimulation 87: D+2.2 — Renwick winsSimulation 88: D+2.7 — Renwick winsSimulation 89: D+3.1 — Renwick winsSimulation 90: D+3.6 — Renwick winsSimulation 91: D+4.1 — Renwick winsSimulation 92: D+4.6 — Renwick winsSimulation 93: D+5.3 — Renwick winsSimulation 94: D+5.9 — Renwick winsSimulation 95: D+6.7 — Renwick winsSimulation 96: D+7.6 — Renwick winsSimulation 97: D+8.6 — Renwick winsSimulation 98: D+9.9 — Renwick winsSimulation 99: D+11.8 — Renwick winsSimulation 100: D+15.5 — Renwick winsR+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
Renwick wins 20 of 100Dagostino wins 80

The forecast over time

One point a day
RenwickDagostino
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayRenwick 20%Dagostino 80%
Show the forecast as a table
DateRenwickDagostinoMargin
Sep 126%74%R+7.6
Sep 2226%74%R+7.3
Oct 1321%79%R+8.3
Oct 3020%80%R+7.7

The ratings

CNN
Lean RR+7

Lean R in V Beach's 1st; Dagostino is favored by our team.

FOX News
Likely RR+9.9

V Beach's 1st: Likely R. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
V Beach 1stR+8100%R+7.7

The candidates

Marcus RenwickDemocratic · Candidate for V Beach's 1st District
45%favorable−0.3 down this week

The Democratic nominee for V Beach's 1st District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Hector Dagostino.

Hector DagostinoRepublican · Incumbent
43%approve+0.6 up this week

Has represented V Beach's 1st District in the House since January 2015. Known at home for the commuter line; in Washington for child care. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Marcus Renwick.

  • The commuter line
  • Child care

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.