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U.S. Representative for Penn A's 10th District
U.S. Representative for Penn A's 10th District · November 3, 2026Lean R

Kwon is slightly favored to win another term

Olivia BelcourtDemocratic · Challenger
28%chance of winning
Zara KwonRepublican · Incumbent
72%chance of winning
Belcourt 46.4%Projected vote · R+5.3 ± 9.0Kwon 51.6%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+28.5 — Kwon winsSimulation 2: R+24.8 — Kwon winsSimulation 3: R+22.9 — Kwon winsSimulation 4: R+21.6 — Kwon winsSimulation 5: R+20.6 — Kwon winsSimulation 6: R+19.7 — Kwon winsSimulation 7: R+18.9 — Kwon winsSimulation 8: R+18.3 — Kwon winsSimulation 9: R+17.6 — Kwon winsSimulation 10: R+17.1 — Kwon winsSimulation 11: R+16.6 — Kwon winsSimulation 12: R+16.1 — Kwon winsSimulation 13: R+15.7 — Kwon winsSimulation 14: R+15.2 — Kwon winsSimulation 15: R+14.8 — Kwon winsSimulation 16: R+14.4 — Kwon winsSimulation 17: R+14.1 — Kwon winsSimulation 18: R+13.7 — Kwon winsSimulation 19: R+13.4 — Kwon winsSimulation 20: R+13 — Kwon winsSimulation 21: R+12.7 — Kwon winsSimulation 22: R+12.4 — Kwon winsSimulation 23: R+12.1 — Kwon winsSimulation 24: R+11.8 — Kwon winsSimulation 25: R+11.5 — Kwon winsSimulation 26: R+11.2 — Kwon winsSimulation 27: R+11 — Kwon winsSimulation 28: R+10.7 — Kwon winsSimulation 29: R+10.4 — Kwon winsSimulation 30: R+10.1 — Kwon winsSimulation 31: R+9.9 — Kwon winsSimulation 32: R+9.6 — Kwon winsSimulation 33: R+9.4 — Kwon winsSimulation 34: R+9.1 — Kwon winsSimulation 35: R+8.9 — Kwon winsSimulation 36: R+8.6 — Kwon winsSimulation 37: R+8.4 — Kwon winsSimulation 38: R+8.2 — Kwon winsSimulation 39: R+7.9 — Kwon winsSimulation 40: R+7.7 — Kwon winsSimulation 41: R+7.5 — Kwon winsSimulation 42: R+7.2 — Kwon winsSimulation 43: R+7 — Kwon winsSimulation 44: R+6.8 — Kwon winsSimulation 45: R+6.5 — Kwon winsSimulation 46: R+6.3 — Kwon winsSimulation 47: R+6.1 — Kwon winsSimulation 48: R+5.9 — Kwon winsSimulation 49: R+5.6 — Kwon winsSimulation 50: R+5.4 — Kwon winsSimulation 51: R+5.2 — Kwon winsSimulation 52: R+5 — Kwon winsSimulation 53: R+4.7 — Kwon winsSimulation 54: R+4.5 — Kwon winsSimulation 55: R+4.3 — Kwon winsSimulation 56: R+4.1 — Kwon winsSimulation 57: R+3.8 — Kwon winsSimulation 58: R+3.6 — Kwon winsSimulation 59: R+3.4 — Kwon winsSimulation 60: R+3.1 — Kwon winsSimulation 61: R+2.9 — Kwon winsSimulation 62: R+2.7 — Kwon winsSimulation 63: R+2.4 — Kwon winsSimulation 64: R+2.2 — Kwon winsSimulation 65: R+2 — Kwon winsSimulation 66: R+1.7 — Kwon winsSimulation 67: R+1.5 — Kwon winsSimulation 68: R+1.2 — Kwon winsSimulation 69: R+1 — Kwon winsSimulation 70: R+0.7 — Kwon winsSimulation 71: R+0.5 — Kwon winsSimulation 72: R+0.2 — Kwon winsSimulation 73: D+0.1 — Belcourt winsSimulation 74: D+0.4 — Belcourt winsSimulation 75: D+0.6 — Belcourt winsSimulation 76: D+0.9 — Belcourt winsSimulation 77: D+1.2 — Belcourt winsSimulation 78: D+1.5 — Belcourt winsSimulation 79: D+1.8 — Belcourt winsSimulation 80: D+2.1 — Belcourt winsSimulation 81: D+2.4 — Belcourt winsSimulation 82: D+2.8 — Belcourt winsSimulation 83: D+3.1 — Belcourt winsSimulation 84: D+3.5 — Belcourt winsSimulation 85: D+3.8 — Belcourt winsSimulation 86: D+4.2 — Belcourt winsSimulation 87: D+4.6 — Belcourt winsSimulation 88: D+5.1 — Belcourt winsSimulation 89: D+5.5 — Belcourt winsSimulation 90: D+6 — Belcourt winsSimulation 91: D+6.5 — Belcourt winsSimulation 92: D+7 — Belcourt winsSimulation 93: D+7.7 — Belcourt winsSimulation 94: D+8.3 — Belcourt winsSimulation 95: D+9.1 — Belcourt winsSimulation 96: D+10 — Belcourt winsSimulation 97: D+11 — Belcourt winsSimulation 98: D+12.3 — Belcourt winsSimulation 99: D+14.2 — Belcourt winsSimulation 100: D+17.9 — Belcourt winsR+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
Belcourt wins 28 of 100Kwon wins 72

The forecast over time

One point a day
BelcourtKwon
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayBelcourt 28%Kwon 72%
Show the forecast as a table
DateBelcourtKwonMargin
Sep 133%67%R+5.3
Sep 2232%68%R+5.1
Oct 1329%71%R+5.7
Oct 3028%72%R+5.3

The ratings

CNN
Lean RR+4.1

Lean R in Penn A's 10th; Kwon is favored by our team.

FOX News
Likely RR+8.5

Penn A's 10th: Likely R. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Penn A 10thR+4100%R+5.3

The candidates

Olivia BelcourtDemocratic · Candidate for Penn A's 10th District
42%favorable+0.3 up this week

The Democratic nominee for Penn A's 10th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Zara Kwon.

Zara KwonRepublican · Incumbent
47%approve−1.6 down this week

Has represented Penn A's 10th District in the House since October 2026. One of Penn A's first 17 members of the House, elected in the admission vote and sworn in on October 2, 2026, the day Penn A joined the Union. Known at home for child care; in Washington for the commuter line. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Olivia Belcourt.

  • Child care
  • The commuter line

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.