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U.S. Representative for V Beach's 4th District
U.S. Representative for V Beach's 4th District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Macready is all but certain to win another term

Valerie MacreadyDemocratic · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Sofia HennesseyRepublican · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Macready 63.2%Projected vote · D+28.3 ± 9.0Hennessey 34.8%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: D+5.1 — Macready winsSimulation 2: D+8.8 — Macready winsSimulation 3: D+10.7 — Macready winsSimulation 4: D+12 — Macready winsSimulation 5: D+13 — Macready winsSimulation 6: D+13.9 — Macready winsSimulation 7: D+14.7 — Macready winsSimulation 8: D+15.3 — Macready winsSimulation 9: D+16 — Macready winsSimulation 10: D+16.5 — Macready winsSimulation 11: D+17 — Macready winsSimulation 12: D+17.5 — Macready winsSimulation 13: D+17.9 — Macready winsSimulation 14: D+18.4 — Macready winsSimulation 15: D+18.8 — Macready winsSimulation 16: D+19.2 — Macready winsSimulation 17: D+19.5 — Macready winsSimulation 18: D+19.9 — Macready winsSimulation 19: D+20.2 — Macready winsSimulation 20: D+20.6 — Macready winsSimulation 21: D+20.9 — Macready winsSimulation 22: D+21.2 — Macready winsSimulation 23: D+21.5 — Macready winsSimulation 24: D+21.8 — Macready winsSimulation 25: D+22.1 — Macready winsSimulation 26: D+22.4 — Macready winsSimulation 27: D+22.6 — Macready winsSimulation 28: D+22.9 — Macready winsSimulation 29: D+23.2 — Macready winsSimulation 30: D+23.5 — Macready winsSimulation 31: D+23.7 — Macready winsSimulation 32: D+24 — Macready winsSimulation 33: D+24.2 — Macready winsSimulation 34: D+24.5 — Macready winsSimulation 35: D+24.7 — Macready winsSimulation 36: D+25 — Macready winsSimulation 37: D+25.2 — Macready winsSimulation 38: D+25.4 — Macready winsSimulation 39: D+25.7 — Macready winsSimulation 40: D+25.9 — Macready winsSimulation 41: D+26.1 — Macready winsSimulation 42: D+26.4 — Macready winsSimulation 43: D+26.6 — Macready winsSimulation 44: D+26.8 — Macready winsSimulation 45: D+27.1 — Macready winsSimulation 46: D+27.3 — Macready winsSimulation 47: D+27.5 — Macready winsSimulation 48: D+27.7 — Macready winsSimulation 49: D+28 — Macready winsSimulation 50: D+28.2 — Macready winsSimulation 51: D+28.4 — Macready winsSimulation 52: D+28.6 — Macready winsSimulation 53: D+28.9 — Macready winsSimulation 54: D+29.1 — Macready winsSimulation 55: D+29.3 — Macready winsSimulation 56: D+29.5 — Macready winsSimulation 57: D+29.8 — Macready winsSimulation 58: D+30 — Macready winsSimulation 59: D+30.2 — Macready winsSimulation 60: D+30.5 — Macready winsSimulation 61: D+30.7 — Macready winsSimulation 62: D+30.9 — Macready winsSimulation 63: D+31.2 — Macready winsSimulation 64: D+31.4 — Macready winsSimulation 65: D+31.6 — Macready winsSimulation 66: D+31.9 — Macready winsSimulation 67: D+32.1 — Macready winsSimulation 68: D+32.4 — Macready winsSimulation 69: D+32.6 — Macready winsSimulation 70: D+32.9 — Macready winsSimulation 71: D+33.1 — Macready winsSimulation 72: D+33.4 — Macready winsSimulation 73: D+33.7 — Macready winsSimulation 74: D+34 — Macready winsSimulation 75: D+34.2 — Macready winsSimulation 76: D+34.5 — Macready winsSimulation 77: D+34.8 — Macready winsSimulation 78: D+35.1 — Macready winsSimulation 79: D+35.4 — Macready winsSimulation 80: D+35.7 — Macready winsSimulation 81: D+36 — Macready winsSimulation 82: D+36.4 — Macready winsSimulation 83: D+36.7 — Macready winsSimulation 84: D+37.1 — Macready winsSimulation 85: D+37.4 — Macready winsSimulation 86: D+37.8 — Macready winsSimulation 87: D+38.2 — Macready winsSimulation 88: D+38.7 — Macready winsSimulation 89: D+39.1 — Macready winsSimulation 90: D+39.6 — Macready winsSimulation 91: D+40.1 — Macready winsSimulation 92: D+40.6 — Macready winsSimulation 93: D+41.3 — Macready winsSimulation 94: D+41.9 — Macready winsSimulation 95: D+42.7 — Macready winsSimulation 96: D+43.6 — Macready winsSimulation 97: D+44.6 — Macready winsSimulation 98: D+45.9 — Macready winsSimulation 99: D+47.8 — Macready winsSimulation 100: D+51.5 — Macready winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50D+60
Macready wins 100 of 100Hennessey wins 0

The forecast over time

One point a day
MacreadyHennessey
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Macready >99%Hennessey <1%
Show the forecast as a table
DateMacreadyHennesseyMargin
Sep 199%1%D+28.7
Sep 22>99%<1%D+28.7
Oct 13>99%<1%D+27.8
Oct 30>99%<1%D+28.3

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+29.8

V Beach's 4th: Safe D. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Safe DD+26

Safe D. V Beach's 4th voters care about prices, not pundits.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
V Beach 4thD+24100%D+28.3

The candidates

Valerie MacreadyDemocratic · Incumbent
49%approve+1.1 up this week

Has represented V Beach's 4th District in the House since January 2019. Known at home for child care; in Washington for the commuter line. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Sofia Hennessey.

  • Child care
  • The commuter line
Sofia HennesseyRepublican · Candidate for V Beach's 4th District
45%favorable−1.7 down this week

The Republican nominee for V Beach's 4th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Valerie Macready.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.