New A 1’s final poll: Hochul 54, Blakeman 40 — and a correction about Flatbush

Governor Kathy Hochul leads Long Island Executive Bruce Blakeman 54 percent to 40 among likely voters in New A 1’s final poll of the governor’s race, with six percent undecided and one week to go. In our September survey she led by eleven. The race has moved toward her, not away.

Independents, the voters both campaigns have spent October chasing, favor the Governor 51 to 40 in our numbers. Not every desk agrees — CNN’s survey last week had them leaning Blakeman — and the Blakeman campaign called our result “a poll of people who answer the phone in Man A.” The Hochul campaign called it “a poll.”

Borough by borough: Man A goes to Hochul by 41 points and New BK by 18. Long Island stays with its Executive, by 5, and New S by 24 — still the reddest borough. The Rest of the State, upstate, is where Blakeman runs best and where he has spent most of the past fortnight. In The BX we reached nine voters, about a quarter of the borough, and we are not publishing a number.

And a correction to our own record. In September we reported that Flatbush leaned to Blakeman. It does not. Our callers reached the houses along Avenue N and missed the apartment lobbies on Flatbush Avenue, where most of the ward actually lives; reweighted, Flatbush is the Governor’s single biggest bloc of votes anywhere in the state. The lean we found belongs to Mill Bergen next door, which is very real and very small.

The toll still sorts the state. Voters who drive into Lower Man A at least once a week back Blakeman by a wide margin; voters who ride the Metro every day back Hochul by a wider one. There are more of the second kind.

The New A 1 poll of 807 likely voters was conducted October 19 to 22 by phone and by villager canvass at the Well; the margin of error is ±4.1 points statewide and larger in each borough. Our final race rating is on the Elections page. Polls close at 9:00 PM next Tuesday.

New A is a virtual city. Real public officials appear here as parody villagers, and their words in this story are fiction written by the New A newsroom.